promotion odds 2014-2015?
Forum rules
Please be sure you are acquainted with the forum rules outlined within our FAQs.
Help support the site by using our Amazon Affiliate link when making any purchases from Amazon.
Please be sure you are acquainted with the forum rules outlined within our FAQs.
Help support the site by using our Amazon Affiliate link when making any purchases from Amazon.
-
- Ballboy
- Posts: 27
- Joined: Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:15 pm
- Twitter: @michaelwiseman6
- Location: Essex
promotion odds 2014-2015?
Out of ten what do you's think the odds of us going up next season is?
Only live once..Enjoy it do what YOU want!!!
- weasel
- Superstar
- Posts: 14130
- Joined: Wed May 23, 2007 10:28 pm
- Location: Within a mile of Yorkshire
Re: promotion odds 2014-2015?
I have used a very comprehensive algorithm based on team strength, finances, youth players coming through the system, fan support & confidence, possible transfers - both in and out, recent performances, average performance over the last 10 years, managerial ability, potential new managerial ability, likelihood of injury percentages for every player, bad luck, good luck and the supposed inability of any striker to play alongside Ross McCormack.
The answer was 5/10 with the computer further explaining that we either would or we wouldn't.
The answer was 5/10 with the computer further explaining that we either would or we wouldn't.
- theleedsmango
- First Team
- Posts: 1948
- Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2011 12:32 pm
Re: promotion odds 2014-2015?
weasel wrote:I have used a very comprehensive algorithm based on team strength, finances, youth players coming through the system, fan support & confidence, possible transfers - both in and out, recent performances, average performance over the last 10 years, managerial ability, potential new managerial ability, likelihood of injury percentages for every player, bad luck, good luck and the supposed inability of any striker to play alongside Ross McCormack.
The answer was 5/10 with the computer further explaining that we either would or we wouldn't.
Considering the league will have all but one of QPR, Forrest, Derby, Brighton, Reading, Ipswich, Wigan, Watford, as well as Cardiff, Sunderland, Norwich/Fulham, a resurgent Wolves and Brentford, the teams that never quite got going this season such as Blackpool, Bolton, Middlesborough and Blackburn...amongst our favourite bogey-team stalwarts including Huddersfield, Barnsley, and Sheffield Wednesday... the only thing we can say with certain; it's not going to be easy.
"Please understand that the theory that every Leeds discussion converges to a finite, but uninformed, debate on the Chairman is one we must all question and actively counter" - Stephen Hawkings
- John in Louisiana
- Site Contributor
- Posts: 10008
- Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:09 pm
- Location: No Longer Lousiana - Southern Illinois
Re: promotion odds 2014-2015?
@ Weasel:
-
- Reserve Player
- Posts: 490
- Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 7:18 pm
Re: promotion odds 2014-2015?
OK, you asked for odds- so the heart has to go out of the window, and you have to apply some Maths.
Long........or at least they should be.
Remember that we expected this season to be a mid table final, whilst McDermott brought in players to develop the squad? Well I guess half of that has been accomplished- we finished mid table. McD hasn't developed the squad- feel free to point your finger of blame where ever you like on that. As Mango pointed out, the championship will certainly not be any easier next year- simply look at Norwich, who have 3/4 of our best players playing for them.
However, fans and punters will see reasonably long odds on Leeds and think- big club, possible big spend and a decent price and bring it back in shorter than it should be. So my answer is we should probably be over 20/1 (5/1 we can scrape into the play offs, then an optimistic 4/1 everyone has an even chance on the day), but I doubt we will be- therefore no value and a poor bet. I can only see any value in it if we are at 33/1- and I seriously doubt that.
Long........or at least they should be.
Remember that we expected this season to be a mid table final, whilst McDermott brought in players to develop the squad? Well I guess half of that has been accomplished- we finished mid table. McD hasn't developed the squad- feel free to point your finger of blame where ever you like on that. As Mango pointed out, the championship will certainly not be any easier next year- simply look at Norwich, who have 3/4 of our best players playing for them.
However, fans and punters will see reasonably long odds on Leeds and think- big club, possible big spend and a decent price and bring it back in shorter than it should be. So my answer is we should probably be over 20/1 (5/1 we can scrape into the play offs, then an optimistic 4/1 everyone has an even chance on the day), but I doubt we will be- therefore no value and a poor bet. I can only see any value in it if we are at 33/1- and I seriously doubt that.
Wise.......well lets just say I TOLD YOU SO