70 points mark - 76 points the revised mark for the next two games ?

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1964white
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70 points mark - 76 points the revised mark for the next two games ?

Post by 1964white » Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:44 am

Managers always say we'll approach one game at a time

I tend to look a week ahead as I posted prior to the Swansea/Bolton games we need to be going for the 64 points marker

Our next marker is surely 70 points

Saying on the coach yesterday if we beat QPR & WBA the championship becomes a three horse race

Table would look like this next Friday night

70 Leeds
66 Norwich
64 Sheff U
60 West Brom

Still feel 85 points maybe enough to gain automatic promotion so if my theory becomes reality we would require 15 points from our final 11 games

Saying that I feel it is imperative we don't lose the Baggies/Blunts games, draws would be good, wins immense !

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by gessa » Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:38 pm

If it was only that simple mate, never works out that way.

If we do win those 2 games, Norwich and Sheffield have 2 very winnable games for their game in hand, if they win those then it's all very tight, and 15 from 11 wouldn't be enough imo. But having said that doubt all 4 games will be wins for us and them. Their's are winnable but Millwall away and the Sheffield derby anything could happen.
I'm pretty sure we'll be excited at the prospect one week and a bag of nerves the next. There's one thing for sure it's been the best feeling for a long while. I'll take tight wins by 1 goal from now on.

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by faaip » Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:48 pm

QPR will give us a good game...I'd take a draw with the side we're likely to put out. Ditto WBA a draw there v a team that has already beaten us and knows how to do it would be a good result any day of the week


69 Norwich
66 Leeds
65 Sheff U
61 West Brom
60 Middlesborough

most on level games with 10 to play and Boro with 11 games left

we get the rough end of the stick Friday, 3 games in 6 days..all tough and we get Brom at home and they have to win. Absolutely have to win.

69 Norwich
65 Sheff U
65 Leeds
63 West Brom
60 Middlesborough

looks like a 5 horse race with us beginning to fade
Team I'd be perfectly happy starting next season

Casilla - Ayling - Douglas - Jansson - Struijk - Phillips - Alioski - Klich - Bogusz - Roofe - BUT WE NEED A LEFT WINGER!

"objective fan" - is that a consistent oxymoron?"

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by gessa » Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:14 pm

I think this.

69 Norwich
66 Leeds
65 Sheff U
61 West Brom
60 Middlesborough

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by 1964white » Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:15 pm

gessa wrote:
Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:38 pm
If it was only that simple mate, never works out that way
I know mate, I was trying to put a positive edge forward :lol:

Lose at Loftus Road & my theory has gone up the creek :cry:

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by 1964white » Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:17 pm

70 Leeds
66 Norwich
64 Sheff U
60 West Brom

I'm sticking with mine because it looks good & makes me feel happy for now :-D

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by BGwhite » Sun Feb 24, 2019 1:48 pm

Norwich will go up, I can't see them failing given they have a much easier run-in compared to the rest. Only if they suffer many injuries will it affect them. The rest are playing for 2nd place.
QPR away is one I have down as a win . They've lost their last 7 in the league, 5 in all competitions , and although WBA struggled to beat them even when they had 10 men I think this is one Leeds should be aiming to get 3 pts from especially as trips to Bristol, Birmingham and Preston will be very difficult to get anything from and WBA & SU due at ER. I wouldn't be surprised if we only get 5 pts from those 5 games. For me a win at QPR is very important as it keeps the winning mentality going into a huge game on Friday. As with all games... hope we score first !

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by Cjay » Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:31 pm

We are capable of of winning our next 2, just not sure whether our little squad can cope with 2 games in 3 days.

But if MB uses his intelligence and tweaks us a bit we can.

Like Sheffield United, that approach vs WBA would be great, selective pressing, man marking key players for 90mins, sacrificing possession in non threatening areas, we did that vs The Blades and while we didnt deserve to win we did definitely deserve a draw and Sheffield United are the best home side in the league.

Nothing to fear from WBA provided MB has learned lessons and realises sometimes gung ho isnt needed. Watched them yesterday and they were poor, watched them vs QPR and they were both very poor, so many individual errors from both sides.

WBA for me are an average side but with some above average players, Gayle, Rodriguez, Philips etc, individual quality has them where they are, they arent a very good team for me and that showed yesterday when they did face a good team.

QPR have been worse then Bolton this year, 1 point in 2019, that should be a formality (better be).

We saw shoots of hope yesterday, Cooper and Jansson looking fairly solid, Ayling performing better, Klich having one of his better games recently, Hernandez looking rejuvenated, Bamford while not fully fit if he keeps getting into those areas and is as accurate with his shooting he will score goals.

We have Ali who imo has been one of if not our best player for the calendar year, Philips wasnt great yesterday but was very good vs Swansea.

If all these players can find there best form again then 70points by Saturday is very much on.

Despite our clinical issues, we are still 4th or 5th for goals scored, 3rd i think it is defensively, and in open play we have only conceded 21 goals, only Boro have less (been that way all season).

Cut out the stupid errors that wernt there earlier this season and we will be golden.

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by Irish Ian » Sun Feb 24, 2019 2:57 pm

Lots of possibilities but the run in suggests Norwich should clinch automatic promotion.

But

Out of the top six only WBA dont play Wednesday, who are on the up after their change in management. I expect they will take a lot of points off the promotion pack.

Sheff Utd also have play 3 yorkshire derbies in short succession as well as the tricky Brentford and Bristol City. That will be a critical time for them. Come through it with 12 points and you would have to say they would be hard to shift from top 3.

WBA have it slightly tougher I think but only us, Bristol away appear to be their biggest challenges.

We know who we have, so far we have won 3 off the six pointers ( against sides currently top 6) lost 2 and drawn 2. With 3 games left against current top 6 and a possible 9 point swing left it is so close to call.

Maybe the lowest scoring promotion chase in history is on
"We can wait for the next game with serenity"

"I am quite clear in my mind that one has to feel sincere love for those he leads, and if he doesn't feel it naturally, then he must learn how to feel it"


Marcelo Bielsa.

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by 1964white » Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:46 pm

West Brom (h), Sheff Utd (h), Brentford (a) & Bristol C (a) are all tricky encounters

Our other nine games a very winnable

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by leedsmad » Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:45 pm

Love the positivety 64.

I think 4 points from our next 2 games is a must doesn't matter in which order at the very least.
I think 2 draws while not the worst scenarios but just maintains that added pressure, ideally a win over WBA would really be a 3 horse race.

Like Gessa it's been an unbelievable ride and a lot of sleepless nights waking up at 2am to watch us then going to work sleep deprieved some days, has been well worth it.

We can see the finish line let's do it.

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by 1964white » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:34 am

Well that little plan went up in smoke :(

Out of all the the top four sides only Leeds could screw up so badly against a team who have lost seven consecutive matches on the bounce & conceded eleven goals in their last three games.

We barely rattled their cage even though their German CB looked nearly as old as me (tbh he is only 28yo)

To all those on here who say our performances don't matter as i read in the Bolton reports, they do matter as last night's fiasco was always on the cards when we are underperforming

Target is now 67, on the evidence of our last two showings v Bolton & QPR I doubt will acquire the three points which is now imperative if we are looking at automatic promotion.

All my initial fears are coming back to haunt us !

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by Norm » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:40 am

1964white » Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:34 am

Well that little plan went up in smoke :(

Out of all the the top four sides only Leeds could screw up so badly against a team who have lost seven consecutive matches on the bounce & conceded eleven goals in their last three games.

We barely rattled their cage even though their German CB looked nearly as old as me (tbh he is only 28yo)

To all those on here who say our performances don't matter as i read in the Bolton reports, they do matter as last night's fiasco was always on the cards when we are underperforming

Target is now 67, on the evidence of our last two showings v Bolton & QPR I doubt will acquire the three points which is now imperative if we are looking at automatic promotion.

All my initial fears are coming back to haunt us !
In fairness Leon we probably lost because they had lost 7 on the trot.
It's a well-known phenomenon whereby any side that has an abnormal run, whether it be wins or losses, will break that run soon. Look at our 7 wins on the bounce and what happened afterwards.
It's called "Regression towards the mean" and has nothing to do with how good or bad we are.
I raised the phenomenon a couple of years ago and Martyn (Guildford White), who is a statistician, confirmed my point and gave me the name. It's why teams don't generally go on a 28-run winning or losing streak and upsets happen.

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Re: 70 points mark

Post by 1964white » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:00 pm

Hopefully only had to wait one game longer for the 70 points mark than I wished for prior to the QPR/West Brom games.

Someone at the Baggies game made a good point....better for us to lose the QPR match than the WBA game

If we can take Friday's form into the Bristol C/Reading games we could be looking at 73 points come a week on Tuesday

I'll be over the moon if we won our next two aways although I'd be happy with four points (2 points a game is required imo)

What are we all expecting in these two games which won't be easy by any means?

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Re: 70 points mark - 76 points the revised mark for the next two games ?

Post by 1964white » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:55 am

Well we got to the 70 points marker one game later than I was hoping for but we're there now so our next goal has to be 76 points in what could be a tough week with two more games in a short space of time v the Royals & Blunts

Four wins in our last five games suggests we are still in good nick

Hopefully two of our most important players Bamford & Phillips are fit & ready to play in both games, right now we haven't got an adequate replacement for either !

A victory at Reading & I do feel a draw v Sheff U at ER wouldn't be a bad result, we certainly must not lose the Blunts game. Hopefully we won't have to be going into Saturday's game needing to win to maintain our top two position.

6 points would certainly increase the gap between us & Billy Blunts boys if god smiles on us this week

The other thing to consider is winning both games should reduce the goal-average advantage Sheff U have on us as the table stands now. The Blunts are at home to Brentford tomorrow night

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Re: 70 points mark - 76 points the revised mark for the next two games ?

Post by 1964white » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:33 am

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Screenshot 2019-03-11 at 10.31.10.png (34.99 KiB) Viewed 405 times

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Re: 70 points mark - 76 points the revised mark for the next two games ?

Post by BGwhite » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:53 pm

If God's on our side we'll have an 8 pt advantage over Blunts after Saturday. ..we can only dream.

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Re: 70 points mark - 76 points the revised mark for the next two games ?

Post by 1964white » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:10 pm

BGwhite wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:53 pm
If God's on our side we'll have an 8 pt advantage over Blunts after Saturday. ..we can only dream.
And why not !

I believe 6 wins (including Sheff Utd game) & two draws would take us up automatically :scar1

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Re: 70 points mark - 76 points the revised mark for the next two games ?

Post by 1964white » Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:28 pm

1964white wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:10 pm
And why not !

I believe 6 wins (including Sheff Utd game) & two draws would take us up automatically :scar1
Still on the cards

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