Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

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weasel
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Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by weasel » Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:33 pm

If we fail to win promotion then perhaps it will be a blessing in disguise. Now this may seem strange at first but I am old enough to remember the heartbreak of the 1987 season when we lost in extra time of the play-off final (replay) after going in front in extra time. That season we had also lost in extra time of the FA Cup semi final. However would that side have been anywhere near good enough to win the league title just 5 years later? I very much doubt it and it was from the ashes of those failures that we ended up with Wilko taking over, us getting promoted and winning the title. The side that nearly got promoted may well have come straight back down and we may have had a brief flirtation with the top flight followed by several more years of mediocrity rather than the Wilko years.

If this year's side go up they may flourish but equally we may find ourselves severely out of our depth. This side is still very much the side that failed under Monk, the side that briefly flourished but then failed under TC and then sank without trace under PH, a manager that is restoring his reputation in Scotland and is perhaps not as bad as our players made him look. By not going up it would allow MB and Orta to strengthen our team, for our youngsters to come through, like Speed and Batty did, and we would be a far stronger team. Yes a couple of players could leave but like when Wilko sold John Sheridan and spent the money on Vinnie Jones sometimes sacrificing a star player can make the team better.

Of course we may still go up. Whilst automatic promotion looks like it has gone there is no need to fear the play-offs. Yes we have a bad record in them but none of our current players has experienced play-off failure with Leeds. We know this side can be brilliant on their day and all it takes is a couple of these type of performances and we would be up. Even in our defeats we have created chances and if Hernandez, Bamford or Roofe has their shooting boots on then they know they will have the opportunities. Klich can score from nothing, Roberts is long overdue a goal too.

With Sheff Utd playing before us again we will know whether our next match is meaningless before we go onto the pitch. As such we can rest players or give players such as Roofe a full match to get sharper. We can fine tune things for the play-offs and get back on track.
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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by Cjay » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:27 pm

I think not going up would be a disaster tbh mate.

The league is different now.

Huddersfield, Fulham will come down with recent promotion know how and bulging wallets.

Should WBA, Stoke and Villa not get promoted they will throw the earth at it again as will many teams who dont care about ffp as much as we seem to.

With ffp resetting teams will be a lot more willing to splash the cash.

Losing star players isn't the be all and end all but only if money is spent on getting the right replacements, something we havent done well in recent years.

An extra season may benifit us in the sense the kids have more time, easier to blood young players in this league but mustn't get ahead of ourselves, no guarantees they are good enough (they have just got battered 3-0 by all accounts).

I'm excited by our youth teams and would love to see a few of them in the side vs Villa should Ipswich be unable to do us a favour vs the Blades.

Also this season hopefully has given MB an opportunity to assess the squad properly first hand (he does seem to have admitted effort on there part has hidden some talent deficiencies) and perhaps not getting promoted would hurt MB so much that he would take tough decisions and insist on certain more limited members of the squad being sold in order to build a squad better suited technically and talent wise to his style of play.

That in the long term may benifit us if promotion was lost this season as you say and maybe we would be stronger next season.

But having said all that not getting promoted would be heartbreaking given the season we have had, the stick we would get all summer for "bottling it" the stick we would get for being top at Christmas.

The inevitable sales, i firmly believe Radz is stretched to the limits financially and I'm not sure he would fund a promotion push next season, he didnt this season.

This is our best chance ever and very well could be the best we have for a decade or more.

Top at Christmas, its bordering on unforgivable given the statistics to not go up after that.

I just hope that the footballing gods have 1 more twist left, how amazing would it be if Ipswich took a point off the Blades and we beat Villa.

Then we both go into the final day needing to win with them needing to beat a Stoke side that while poor all season do have the players to give someone a game, they nearly beat Norwich the other day.

:)

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by faaip » Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:05 pm

Teams with premier players and bulging wallets come down every year ...what so different about Fulham and Hudds. Most come down and struggle.
GET IN THE BOAT AND ROW

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by HarryofOz » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:20 pm

Sorry Weasel but I disagree about it being a blessing in disguise if we fail to go up. Though before I go on, I will add that I have definitely not given up on us being promoted yet.

The analogy comparing our current situation with the '87 team v the team that eventually got us promoted can easily be counteracted with an analogy to what happened last time we missed out on promotion to the Premier League in the year after we were relegated. Not long after that we were in the Third Tier.

We have also come close twice since then. The first season after our promotion back from the Third Tier. After that we didn't come close to promotion until the Monk season. And after the Monk season we struggled again, though now just two seasons later we have bounced back of course.

I'm worried (though it is mere speculation of course) about the psychological aspect of failing to get promoted. To come so close and fall at the last hurdle and know you have to go through it all again. To be four points clear half way through the season with the knowledge that history points to getting promoted from that position, and then to fall short. In fact to even be favourites (even if just slightly) for automatic promotion with just four games to go and to just miss out - including a game where we played a bottom of the table team that had only 10 men for 80 minutes. How many times will these players think - if only this or if only that.
We're going up like there is no gravity!

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by Genghers » Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:53 am

If we keep Bielsa we will be fine. I think key players will want to play for him again, given how well we have played this year, and hopefully we can bring in some more quality players in the summer. We'd hopefully have a fit squad going into the season and can avoid the ridiculous run of injuries that we have had this year.

I would worry what happens if Bielsa leaves, but for now we have to assume that he's staying (for sanity's sake!).

I'm also not writing off promotion. This squad are tough, even if this weekend suggested otherwise. I can see them getting up for playoffs.

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by SelmaBamaMan » Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:51 am

Genghers alluded to an important consideration in evaluating promotion next season if MB stays. It is the underlined portion of Genghers that “I think key players will want to play for him again, given how well we have played this year, and hopefully we can bring in some more quality players in the summer.” We will have more quality players willing to sign on as a loan or purchase because of how well we played; just fell a little short because of a little lack of quality; and they think they have the quality to go up, thereby demonstrating their ability to be a premiership player.

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by faaip » Wed Apr 24, 2019 8:23 am

The Bielsa effect effect of course gets stunted a bit next season, teams will know what to expect. In a 46 season game there are no guarantees we could as easily add 30M of talent and finish mid table as we could add 5 M of talent and win the league. If we fail we will just have to start all over on another long season to compete with new teams, referees, injuries at the wrong time and still not be a top ten team in terms of money nor not the only team improving. In fact a great effort like this may have us start slow next season as a reaction.

I'm with Harry, this cannot be a blessing in disguise. There's 100 mill and parachute payments waiting if needed...if we can survive the Prem for 1 season, even finishing 18th/19th which would be more likely than not then that would be 200 plus million added to the coffers....

That has to be, even with a prem relegation, better than up to 2-3 more seasons in this division on not much money at all

We're not guaranteed promotion next year because we did so well this year
GET IN THE BOAT AND ROW

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by SaraM » Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:48 am

As a general philosophical point, it is often the suffering in life which contributes the most to our growth in wisdom and understanding. Disappointments and failures can and do lead to unexpected developments.

How this applies to football I'm not sure, but it is another truism that the Championship is going to be harder than ever next year, this, that or the other team coming up or down will do such and such, and yet it never pans out quite how anyone thinks it will. If you want to give the gods a laugh, tell them your plans! Or support Leeds United!

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by BGwhite » Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:33 am

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Luton get promoted to the PL next season ala Leicester & Southampton coming straight through the leagues. Once momentum is gained there sometimes can be no stopping . Leeds have this inbuilt self-destruction button that 1000's of us expect to be pressed at any given moment . I genuinely believed that this year was our year - and of course it still may be - but the button has been pressed and this will take one hell of a recovery to turn it around. If SU win on Saturday I really don't know how the players will cope mentally and I can see a real hammering from Villa and if they follow that with a poor performance at Ipswich then for me there's no coming back and the playoffs will be over very quickly. My heart says they can still do it but my head says not.

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by 1964white » Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:49 am

BGwhite wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:33 am
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Luton get promoted to the PL next season ala Leicester & Southampton coming straight through the leagues.
Don't want Luton going up too quickly as they have a new ground in the following season as do Brentford, two new stadiums to tick off :lol:

I was hoping to visit Spurs & West Ham new stadiums but I suppose our fans will have to make sacrifices as we always do !

Luton

Screenshot 2019-04-24 at 12.41.39.png

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by gessa » Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:57 am

1964white wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:49 am

I was hoping to visit Spurs & West Ham new stadiums but I suppose our fans will have to make sacrifices as we always do !

So we're definitely 100% not going up then mate?

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by 1964white » Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:04 pm

gessa wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:57 am
So we're definitely 100% not going up then mate?
We may do we may not pending on which Leeds United team turns up.

Personally I don't give a damn anymore, it's not the end of the world if we miss out mate.

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by gessa » Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:14 pm

1964white wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:04 pm
We may do we may not pending on which Leeds United team turns up.

Personally I don't give a damn anymore, it's not the end of the world if we miss out mate.
Come on, of course you do, we all do, we just all handle it differently.

You'll be there at Wembley with the other 35.000, on cloud 9 when we beat the Baggies 3-2 in the final.

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by mothbanquet » Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:26 pm

1964white wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:49 am
Don't want Luton going up too quickly as they have a new ground in the following season as do Brentford, two new stadiums to tick off :lol:

I was hoping to visit Spurs & West Ham new stadiums but I suppose our fans will have to make sacrifices as we always do !
That's a good point actually, I wonder if these pitches will be bigger than the current ones and more suited to our style of play?

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by 1964white » Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:07 pm

gessa wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:14 pm
Come on, of course you do, we all do, we just all handle it differently.

You'll be there at Wembley with the other 35.000, on cloud 9 when we beat the Baggies 3-2 in the final.
I'll be at all three play-off matches should we make it to Wembley as will be the case whatever league we are in next season.

I can't allow myself to feel as bad as I did last weekend again after the Wigan debacle. I tend to get over defeats very quickly but that one lingered with me over the next three days, I feared the worse & I didn't have high expectations for the Brentford game so as the Bees ran rings round us in the 2nd half my disappointment was fading fast.
I refuse to be dragged into all the "keep the faith/we'll do it in the play-offs" crap. If we managed to find some form & zest from god knows where which takes us to the premiership I'll be over the moon, if not I'll continue to follow my team around the lower league grounds even if things go totally tits up & we end up back to square one.

I shall approach Wembley with caution & trepidation, just support the team & enjoy the day, then look forward to next season no matter what happens !

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by 1964white » Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:12 pm

mothbanquet wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:26 pm
That's a good point actually, I wonder if these pitches will be bigger than the current ones and more suited to our style of play?
Hard to say Moth hope so, Brentford's structure is up & running, at ground level it was just a mass of concrete, rubble, etc so was difficult to tell from where we standing

We don't perform well on small pitches in compact stadiums so we can all but hope!

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by gessa » Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:32 pm

1964white wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:07 pm
I'll be at all three play-off matches should we make it to Wembley as will be the case whatever league we are in next season.

I can't allow myself to feel as bad as I did last weekend again after the Wigan debacle. I tend to get over defeats very quickly but that one lingered with me over the next three days, I feared the worse & I didn't have high expectations for the Brentford game so as the Bees ran rings round us in the 2nd half my disappointment was fading fast.
I refuse to be dragged into all the "keep the faith/we'll do it in the play-offs" crap. If we managed to find some form & zest from god knows where which takes us to the premiership I'll be over the moon, if not I'll continue to follow my team around the lower league grounds even if things go totally tits up & we end up back to square one.

I shall approach Wembley with caution & trepidation, just support the team & enjoy the day, then look forward to next season no matter what happens !
Like I said we all deal with it differently, I certainly don't think it's "crap" that folk are keeping positive and are hoping above all hope we can do it still.

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by mothbanquet » Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:37 pm

1964white wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:12 pm
Brentford's structure is up & running, at ground level it was just a mass of concrete, rubble...
I was talking about the stadium... ;-)

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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by weasel » Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:19 pm

Cjay wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:27 pm
1) Huddersfield, Fulham will come down with recent promotion know how and bulging wallets.

2) Losing star players isn't the be all and end all but only if money is spent on getting the right replacements, something we havent done well in recent years.

3) An extra season may benefit us in the sense the kids have more time, easier to blood young players in this league but mustn't get ahead of ourselves, no guarantees they are good enough (they have just got battered 3-0 by all accounts).

4) Also this season hopefully has given MB an opportunity to assess the squad properly first hand (he does seem to have admitted effort on there part has hidden some talent deficiencies) and perhaps not getting promoted would hurt MB so much that he would take tough decisions and insist on certain more limited members of the squad being sold in order to build a squad better suited technically and talent wise to his style of play.
The inevitable sales, i firmly believe Radz is stretched to the limits financially and I'm not sure he would fund a promotion push next season, he didnt this season.
1 - It seems less and less that teams go straight back up nowadays. You have teams that have got used to losing and it is a hard habit to break. You also have players that have proven they aren't premiership class - do they now have the determination to get back there or are their careers now on a downward spiral? We on the other hand, if we can get over the disappointment, have a lot of players who have been improving and possibly young players starting out on exciting careers.

2 - We have bought sh*t in recent years however we have often seen the scattergun approach because the squads we had were awful, Cellino boughts en masse with the hope some would be gems and Orta did likewise. Now we are not talking about replacing the whole squad but targetting players who can improve the team. Bielsa has already shown he doesn't simply want squad fillers so you have to expect the players he wants to be decent players with the emphasis on quality not quantity. Not sure Bamford was on Bielsa's radar - it seemed more that we needed a striker and he was available at the right price. So the only players that Bielsa has definitely wanted have been Casillas and Dan James. Given none of us had heard of Casillas he has proved to be a decent signing and similarly, despite James playing in our division, none of us really knew of him and it shows that Bielsa/Orta has a good eye for talent in that they wanted him. With Bielsa in charge and presumably having the final say I would be confident that the signings we make will be good signings.

3) I wouldn't worry too much about the U23s losing 3-0. The Leeds team that beat the famous Man U youth side that contained Scholes, Beckham, Nevilles etc flopped whereas the beaten MU players flourished.Sometimes a team just has a bad performance but we have seen enough of them all season to have hope that some will be good players.

4) Seeing players on video is nothing like seeing them every day at training and in matches and I am sure that MB has identified a lot of areas he wants to improve on. Some players will be able to improve and some Bielsa will have probably already got them to their maximum and if it isn't good enough then he will want to improve. I have never been convinced Jannson fits into MB's plans and honestly think if Berardi and Cooper had stayed fit all season that would have been the pairing. Similarly MB has been searching internally for a Saiz replacement and he hasn't been able to find one - in playing Forshaw instead of Phillips MB said he wanted someone who was better running with the ball, however for me Forshaw is no Saiz and we have missed Saiz's ability to get the ball and run at pace with it with defenders and midfielders scattering all over and space opening up. So if we don't go up Bielsa has a whole summer to come up with solutions and I am sure he has already drawn up a list of players he wants. Whilst Radrizaani hasn't been prepared to throw a huge amount of money into the pot for transfers he has made money raised from sales available so I don't see any problem in us being able to bring in a few players if we are prepared to sacrifice 2 or 3 players.
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Re: Sometimes it's a blessing in disguise

Post by weasel » Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:30 pm

HarryofOz wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:20 pm
1) The analogy comparing our current situation with the '87 team v the team that eventually got us promoted can easily be counteracted with an analogy to what happened last time we missed out on promotion to the Premier League in the year after we were relegated. Not long after that we were in the Third Tier.

2) We have also come close twice since then. The first season after our promotion back from the Third Tier. After that we didn't come close to promotion until the Monk season. And after the Monk season we struggled again, though now just two seasons later we have bounced back of course.

3) I'm worried (though it is mere speculation of course) about the psychological aspect of failing to get promoted. To come so close and fall at the last hurdle and know you have to go through it all again. To be four points clear half way through the season with the knowledge that history points to getting promoted from that position, and then to fall short. In fact to even be favourites (even if just slightly) for automatic promotion with just four games to go and to just miss out - including a game where we played a bottom of the table team that had only 10 men for 80 minutes. How many times will these players think - if only this or if only that.
1) Certainly a valid point about teams suffering a hangover and then having a bad season. However the Blackwell side had been on its last legs a long time before the previous season ended, limping into a play-off spot instead of going in with momentum. It seem Billy Davies inspired our semi final win more than Blackwell did. The side though was an ageing side with many players fast approaching sell by dates and it caught up with them the next season. A better manager than Wise may well have kept them up but I feel a young manager with an old team meant he didn't have the authority that he needed - contrast that to the following season when the team changed into a younger team with players eager to play and make an impression - players trying to make their name in the game rather than players who had 'seen it and done it.'

2) The key for me there was poor transfer activity in the summers after missing out. SG wasn't backed and instead of improving we were losing our better players. TC's campaign started off well so no real hangover effect, however once again the recruitment wasn't great especially the decision to release Green and replace him with Felix. We lost 3 of our best players from the Monk season in Green, Bartley and Wood and simply didn't replace them. I don't see any of our current players being as hard to replace as Green and Wood were. Put Green and Wood in TC's team or Bielsa's team and I think both teams would have finished higher than they did.

3) The psychological aspect is certainly something that cannot be downplayed but equally the disappointment, if channelled properly, can be used to galvanise the players. Alex Ferguson's turned his 1992 bottlers into serial winners (despite a poor start to the 1993 season). Similarly he turned the FA Youth side's loss into a way to get the best out of the likes of Beckham, Scholes, Nevilles etc.
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