Stats show glaring misses have cost Leeds 23 points this season

23 Jun 2020 07:40 am, by Ellandback1

Good Morning. It's Tuesday 23rd June, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road..

Hernandez on the mend

Leeds Utd journalist Phil Hay has delivered some encouraging news regarding the fitness of veteran play maker Pablo Hernandez. The 35 year old picked up a knock during a session of murderball last week which kept him sidelined from the Cardiff game on Sunday. Former Chief football writer for the YEP, Phil Hay believes the Spaniard has a good chance of being ready for the crunch match against Fulham on Saturday...

They’re telling us he’ll be back training this week – so ideally involved against Fulham. Sometimes it’s easy to under-estimate the sheer quality of his passing and vision. It makes a difference so often. You almost take him for granted because he’s so gifted.

Did we miss Hernandez on Sunday? How did Roberts perform in his place? Does Roberts deserve to get dropped? If Hernandez is fit to start, would you like to see Roberts replace Bamford in the starting line up? How likely is that to happen?

Whelan fumes about striking options - 'Its a joke'

Noel Whelan was incensed and described it as 'a joke' that Leeds did not have a back up forward on the bench. The former centre forward claimed that Leeds were the only team in the Championship that had no replacement striker on the bench.

It is a huge problem. A huge problem!

I do not know any Championship side this weekend that did not have a striker on their bench. This is a joke, quite frankly. A team that is level on points, top of the league, only has one striker to choose from and no options on the bench. I cannot think of any side that has no replacement striker. That is poor for a club like Leeds United. I cannot remember a time where we have no had a second striker on the bench for the whole season. Most teams benches are stronger than Leeds, teams that are not even up there challenging.

Will missed opportunities cost Leeds?

Have you wondered what position Leeds would be in, if they put away their chances? I suppose all teams can say the same about missing good opportunities........ until now! 'EFL Stats' have recreated the Championship table to incorporate every goal-scoring chance, and the likelihood of scoring. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance.

View all Showing latest five comments of eleven...

BGwhite wrote on 23 Jun 2020 11:44 am

faaip wrote: They live and die by stats here, something I've been railing against for a long time. Stats can work but they have to be complete, football fans cherry pick the ones that suit their argument/s

However I do think we should have won the league by now as I think we have the best team in the league by a distance.
We haven't won the league yet because of the ' missed chances' , it's what people define as missed chances which is the debate. Our problem is not converting possession into goals but I'd argue that clear chances are few and far between and we don't have any natural goalscorers or anyone who can create and score their own chances like a Yeboah type. We are very weak upfront and it needs seriously addressing.

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Cjay wrote on 23 Jun 2020 11:34 am

faaip wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:00 am All Poveda's touches here ... atch_again

Again lack of movement in the box and double teams meant he struggled to break Cardiff down, one lovely pass just out of Klichs reach. Very left footed
2 defenders on him all the time, the one time it was just 1 he created a decent chance as you say.

Did well under the circumstances.

Yay Ian.

Cjay wrote on 23 Jun 2020 11:27 am


We need him back desperately, Roberts is ok but he isnt Pablo and TyRo may be injured again anyway.

MB has worked miracles since being here but take Pablo out and we average 1.3 and 1.42 ppg which is midtable which is roughly where this squad should be.

Noel is right, its a joke that we have only 1 senior striker and most teams do have stronger benches.

We know we should have more points, table tells us what we already know.

faaip wrote on 23 Jun 2020 11:00 am

All Poveda's touches here ... atch_again

Again lack of movement in the box and double teams meant he struggled to break Cardiff down, one lovely pass just out of Klichs reach. Very left footed

faaip wrote on 23 Jun 2020 10:36 am

Football doesn't lend itself to stats really...Expected goals is incredibly subjective, passes completed scores a 3 yard sideways pass the same as an intricate through ball. Assists works on the theory that the last person to touch the ball assisted the goal. Every stat we use is heavily flawed.

Stats work in stop start sports like cricket/baseball and gridiron (where we even have adjusted stats, which I love) I'm actually a stat fan which is why I love baseball and gridiron.

In football we use poorly collated stats to see if a player played well when all you need to have done is watch the game. Even at that point most fans allow the result to affect the process.

Going back to the original questions, I thought Roberts did well and there's no real reason to suppose Pablo, at his age coming off a 3 month lay off, would have done better ..I don't think there will be any changes unless Pablo is full go. I'm not happy Bamford starts as I don't think he's a very good striker for a lot of reasons. I'll bow to MB at this point but know that we're handicapping ourselves while he plays. We've left it too late though to blood a new striker, we let that opportunity pass months ago.

Roberts does not deserved to be dropped, one of our better players on Sunday, but he will be if Pablo is back as his job is #2 AMF and #2 striker..
Noel Whelan is just writing to get reaction and "sell" copy rather than attempting intelligent journalism..