Inflated Transfer Fees

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Inflated Transfer Fees

Post by andrewjohnsmith »

I got on this on a couple of other threads, but I think it needs it's own thread. We have to be careful with transfer fees right now because I think everything is over-valued. COVID has caused a recession. And it will cause transfer fees and player wages to drop. Football seems a little slow to realize that, but it needs to realize it fast. Those that spend heavily now, will probably be sorry a year from now. It's like buying a house right before a recession. Pay 100,000 today and your house might only be worth 50,000 next year.

So, right now, I see us chasing players at 20-30 million. I'll bet their values will only be half of that within a year. And the same goes for their wages.

The affect of no fans is obvious - season tickets, gate receipts, food, drinks, matchday programs, merchandise. That revenue is lost for every game we don't have fans in the stadium. We'll get TV money, That's great. But with a recession the TV money will drop too. Sky relies on advertisers. If advertisers don't have money to spend, Sky has to drop its rates and therefore drop its own payouts. That also applies to our own commercial business. The prices we charge for billboards, shirts, matchday program ads, and so much more will have to drop. It's great that we just got a record breaking deal, but that's today, I worry about next year.

I think that's really slowing down a lot of deals right now. I think clubs that have players are trying to get whatever they can for fear of the future. And I think buying clubs are sitting on the fence because they're scared of paying over the odds at a pre-recsession price. The market could really take a s**t right now and we'll be left with wage bills we can't pay and players we can't sell.

I'm not saying don't buy. We know we need a couple of players, but we have to spend wisely. For me, the White price is getting unrealistic. We might pay 30m today for a player that we can't get 10m for in a panic (read Kewell, Keane, or anyone else from the Risdale era). I'd seriously be looking at players in the 10 million range and stay away from the 30 million fees. It also reinforces what we're doing with the youngsters. That's the sustainable way forward. It's the least risky path we can go.
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Re: Inflated Transfer Fees

Post by rab_rant »

Well said. could not agree more. sometimes i feel Leeds are a bipolar club... 16 years of depression and with promotion comes elation and we go into a hyper phase where it is spend spend spend.

Bielsa contrary. to most coaches believes in working with a small team with two players covering each position, and following the philosophy that less is more ( old Unix joke ) and that ideal maybe the salvation of the club.

He has always been contrarian in his thinking and that is a difficult and lonely road to tred what with fans baying for his blood because he does not do what they think he should be doing... condeming him for stuborness when he perceives it as loyalty.

In these uncertain times having the correct ideas and values may be more important than throwing about silly money in an attempt to secure an elusive dream.

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Re: Inflated Transfer Fees

Post by Scoobychief »

yeah it has become a very difficult doing business since this covid, unless you have stacks of money like chelsea, man city etc.. but we must be careful, we know we need quality ad at least 5 signings to stay up, but keep going back to brighton and upping the offer for white is putting all our eggs into 1 basket, we need to drop that and buy shrewdly either from abroad or wait for premier league out of contract players that are quality no fee to pay just their wages. its been probably over 3 weeks now since we won the championship and we havent even decided on bielsa's future yet whats going on. plenty of cheap buys for the under 23, but we must now keep a foot in the premier league and stay there, thats where the money is. the only trouble about looking and buying quality players is that their wage will not be what other premier league teams more established would offer them. those quality buys are going to want to wear that leeds united badge and put club before self.
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Re: Inflated Transfer Fees

Post by Tottenham »

Transfer fees are ridiculous but it is wages that are the killer.

Someone on £100k a week (allegedly like our new signing) is going to cost you £26mn in wages over the course of their 5 year contract.

I think a lot of clubs, apart from the usual suspects, will have to get very creative in this window. We signed Hojbjerg for £15m and sold Saints KWP for £12m.

We will try and offload peripheral players before we can afford to sign new ones.
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Re: Inflated Transfer Fees

Post by SG90 »

The domestic market is ridiculous, you won't find any bargains in England. Even League One players these days are given £10m price tags. That's why we need to either A) Have a strong scouting network or B) Have a good academy, so you don't have to spend millions on back ups.
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