Theories please....

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Carrick Dave
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Theories please....

Post by Carrick Dave »

In 18 games of the New Premier League season, there hasn’t been a single draw.

Why do you think that is?
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andrewjohnsmith
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Re: Theories please....

Post by andrewjohnsmith »

Probably because one team scored more than the other in every game.

Seriously though. Hard to say. Both of Leeds games could have been draws.
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Smudge3920
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Re: Theories please....

Post by Smudge3920 »

We know why in our case ...not Bielsa's way :love: , as for the rest early doors yet. Teams will start parking the bus soon enough with the stronger attacking sides ...like us :scarfe2:
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andrewjohnsmith
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Re: Theories please....

Post by andrewjohnsmith »

Bielsa did say in his post match interview that there are no trends yet. It's too early.
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Re: Theories please....

Post by Tooting »

This is after all why they changed to three points for a win and only one for a draw, of course this has been the rule for almost thirty years now and for previous seasons draws happened in just over 25% of games.

I work out the chance of 16 games with no draws to be 1.3%, which while low it is not as if you asked the question before any games were played, rather there are a huge number of unlikely outcomes that could be possible each with a low chance of success (i.e. all home wins) so the better question is how likely the results of 16 games would be statistically unusual, which could get us up to high single digits of percentage chances, which again could be for any run of games, not just the first 16.

I think that it is unlikely there is a reason, what would be interesting is how many draws in the next 16 games, if that is also statistically very low then perhaps there is something going on.
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Re: Theories please....

Post by mothbanquet »

Probably because there's penalties being doled out for funny looks and thoughtcrime right now.
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gessa
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Re: Theories please....

Post by gessa »

Can see Villa v Blunts being the first one tonight
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Re: Theories please....

Post by Scoobychief »

lack of fans and atmosphere to blame. no team are nervous
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Chilli D
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Re: Theories please....

Post by Chilli D »

Its also noticeable how many goals are being conceded.
Aside from our game, West Brom and Southampton let in 5, Burnley 4 and even Manure conceded 3
Winning sides like Spurs, Everton and Leicester all conceded 2.
On Saturday night I was concerned about our 7 goals against already but maybe the PL is going to be an attack dominated league this year and our high press game is the best form of defence?
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Re: Theories please....

Post by 1964white »

gessa wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:55 am Can see Villa v Blunts being the first one tonight
Me too :tup:
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Re: Theories please....

Post by 1964white »

Tooting wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:19 pm This is after all why they changed to three points for a win and only one for a draw, of course this has been the rule for almost thirty years now and for previous seasons draws happened in just over 25% of games.

I work out the chance of 16 games with no draws to be 1.3%, which while low it is not as if you asked the question before any games were played, rather there are a huge number of unlikely outcomes that could be possible each with a low chance of success (i.e. all home wins) so the better question is how likely the results of 16 games would be statistically unusual, which could get us up to high single digits of percentage chances, which again could be for any run of games, not just the first 16.

I think that it is unlikely there is a reason, what would be interesting is how many draws in the next 16 games, if that is also statistically very low then perhaps there is something going on.
Welcome to MOT Tooting :tup:
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mothbanquet
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Re: Theories please....

Post by mothbanquet »

Chilli D wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:25 am Its also noticeable how many goals are being conceded.
Aside from our game, West Brom and Southampton let in 5, Burnley 4 and even Manure conceded 3
Winning sides like Spurs, Everton and Leicester all conceded 2.
On Saturday night I was concerned about our 7 goals against already but maybe the PL is going to be an attack dominated league this year and our high press game is the best form of defence?
That's a very good point, Chilli. For all the talk of our defence, Southamption have conceded as many and West Brom more than us, without anyone new at the back or playing a particularly complex defensive system.

Honestly, I am starting to see Fulham maybe getting a few points under them if they use their teeth. They've got the squad, just not the manager.
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Re: Theories please....

Post by Jammy 07 »

gessa wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:55 am Can see Villa v Blunts being the first one tonight
Think I might have a little play on;
Draw Ht/Draw Ft @ 4/1

Cash out around 80 mins if winning at that point.
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SaraM
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Re: Theories please....

Post by SaraM »

Think the high scoring is down to the lack of preseason, and defences being disorganised as a result. I'm hoping so, in our case, anyway.
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Re: Theories please....

Post by YorkshireSquare »

SaraM wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:21 am Think the high scoring is down to the lack of preseason, and defences being disorganised as a result. I'm hoping so, in our case, anyway.

Definitely, lack of pre-season, lack of understanding and organisation.

Plenty of sides shipping goals, loads of space to exploit.
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Re: Theories please....

Post by Irish Ian »

Think playing away from home without fan pressure may affect some teams attitude.
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gessa
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Re: Theories please....

Post by gessa »

Jammy 07 wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:14 am Think I might have a little play on;
Draw Ht/Draw Ft @ 4/1

Cash out around 80 mins if winning at that point.
Decent bet that mate.
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Re: Theories please....

Post by Ratscoot »

mothbanquet wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:51 am Probably because there's penalties being doled out for funny looks and thoughtcrime right now.
We've had 3 given against us for just that :lol: :lol:
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Re: Theories please....

Post by 1964white »

mothbanquet wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:09 am That's a very good point, Chilli. For all the talk of our defence, Southamption have conceded as many and West Brom more than us, without anyone new at the back or playing a particularly complex defensive system.

Honestly, I am starting to see Fulham maybe getting a few points under them if they use their teeth. They've got the squad, just not the manager.
The reason I have Fulham to be relegated

Bielsa would have field day with their squad
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Re: Theories please....

Post by Tooting »

Well the draws have started to roll in now!
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