Cream of the Championship

[Smudge3920]

Benrahma age 25...
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Sarr age 22..
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[1964white]

I’ve always been impressed with Jed Wallace (Millwall).
Way too classy for them, surely he wouldn’t cost much, and is coming towards the end of his contract - unless he’s signed another.
Good at set pieces too.

Impressed me on the occasions I've seen Wallace play, surprised lower prem teams haven't pursued him

[Dundalis]

Benrahma age 25...
...B2.jpg


Sarr age 22..
...S2.jpg

I don't really know what that is. How can he be the number 1 player in the Championship when he's played 2 games in it? And he's not been very good in either of them as Watford fans will tell you. I feel like there's no way this is based on anything other than reputation as opposed to any actual statistical evidence, happy to be proven wrong. Have you watched much of either of these players?

This is some actual key advanced stats of both players in leagues they have gotten a lot of game time. Granted, Sarr has played in the better leagues, but Behrahma has double or close to double the shots per game, key passes per game, successful dribbles, passes per game, which shows he's much more involved in build up play. Even considering playing in the lesser league, it's a significant enough statistical difference to give an idea of the way they play and are involved in the game. Sarr looks quite good with his pace and power in space on counter attacks, but he's useless right now against any team that plays a low block, because he doesn't really have the passing or technical ability to do anything. He's an out and out winger/striker. Benrahma clearly has the technical ability with much more polished end product, and is more positionally versatile, could definitely play the no. 10, but hasn't been able to prove it in a top league yet. But he's just way better at creating goal scoring opportunities than Sarr, even accounting for difference in leagues, the gap is too big IMO. Behrama's stats in the championship are better than players like Maddison and Grealish ever had, who he's probably more talented versions of I think. His dribbling ability is actually pretty insane, he'd have to real it in a bit playing in the EPL, can't be nutmegging premier league defenders 10 times a game, but that technical ability is not common.

[Smudge3920]

...really started something here 'aint I... are you related to Benrahma mate?... ... I am sure all those statistics were taken into account... Sarr has already won a major trophy, played in superior leagues, at the moment he is playing with a lesser team than Brentford, he is also 3 years behind Benrahma in development... and statistics are statistics...also Sarr comes without an attitude, heard lots about Benrahma's, which imo is why Bielsa has not shown an interest (unless I missed it)... I think Bielsa could make him (Sarr) a way better player than Benrahma.

At the end of the day mate, we have a fundamental differing opinion of these two player's, which is healthy.

P.S...I forgot , one question...why is Sarr's market value so much higher than Benrahma's?

[Dundalis]

...really started something here 'aint I... are you related to Benrahma mate?... ... I am sure all those statistics were taken into account... Sarr has already won a major trophy, played in superior leagues, at the moment he is playing with a lesser team than Brentford, he is also 3 years behind Benrahma in development... and statistics are statistics...also Sarr comes without an attitude, heard lots about Benrahma's, which imo is why Bielsa has not shown an interest (unless I missed it)... I think Bielsa could make him (Sarr) a way better player than Benrahma.

At the end of the day mate, we have a fundamental differing opinion of these two player's, which is healthy.

P.S...I forgot , one question...why is Sarr's market value so much higher than Benrahma's?

Dunno what your on about, I could do this all day. I do statistics for all kinds of sports, football, basketball, etc, it's not that complicated. Also you literally posted a big arse graphic of a bunch of random rankings from god knows where, looks like football manager or something that doesn't seem to be based on anything (popularity?), but are having a laugh that I responded with actual real statistics lol. Statistics are much more accurate than the naked eye for assessing what a player can actually do on the pitch. This team has a coach that probably has thousands of spreadsheets with stats in them, and all the teams that are actually any good at transfers use data analytics to drive their recruitment these days, not simple naked eye scouting, so dunno why you think it's funny. If stats weren't so important this wouldn't be the case. Anyway, you can literally go check what Watford fans think, which is a decent indicator. And it's not really that heavily in favour of Sarr's overall performances, which it should be for a young 22 year old they spent 30 mill on that is currently staying with their relegated team.

What market value? You mean stuff off a random site like the transfermarkt.com? Also I did say I'd rather they not sign anyone. Behrahma does think highly of himself, which might be an issue, I'm just saying it's pretty clear cut who the more well rounded and technical superior player is. Maybe Sarr will turn into a top class player if he finds the system that suits him, but there's no one that watches him day in day out that would argue he's not a one dimensional fast winger with not much guile or technique to his game. He's basically like a younger Welbeck, or Divock Origi. Even in 3 years (when he's Benrahma's age), he's not turning into someone with the technical and passing ability to play as a no. 10 or deeper in midfield, he's gonna be good if he gets developed as an inside forward and his end product gets a lot better.

[Smudge3920]

Dunno what your on about, I could do this all day. I do statistics for all kinds of sports, football, basketball, etc, it's not that complicated.

Guess what mate... I dont agree with you ...simple as ... you truly believe in statistics as the be all and end all... So you can only see your own view point....Research why the Oakland A's in Baseball have never won a series yet,... And what their GM invested in a number of years ago, still believes in Statistics, but never won a series yet ...Lots of team's (all sports) rely purely on statistics still looking for the winning season... yep statistics help, I will agree... but as I said before if Bielsa is not shouting about Benrahma... then his stats don't count right?... Lot of scouts out there, who have been around a long time that bring you what statistics cannot.

And a light hearted exit...
As Mr. T said ...
"I pity the fool who does not know their population standard deviation ...

[Dundalis]

Guess what... I dont agree with you ...simple as ...

I don't mind whether you do or not. If you hadn't posted some big graphic of rankings with no basis behind it I wouldn't have responded at all, but I thought because you did post it that you actually had some clue what it actually represented lol, and I do statistical analysis pretty regularly so it is what it is.

[Smudge3920]

I don't mind whether you do or not. If you hadn't posted some big graphic of rankings with no basis behind it I wouldn't have responded at all, but I thought because you did post it that you actually had some clue what it actually represented lol, and I do statistical analysis pretty regularly so it is what it is.

Why so upset?... no one ever disagreed with you before?...

So how come the Oakland A's have never won a series, based on how the GM does business?... You do all sports you said .

[Chilli D]

Algeria must have hell of a team if they have 6 players better than Benrahma.

[Smudge3920]

Algeria must have hell of a team if they have 6 players better than Benrahma.

Thats what I thought mate... but that's stats for you , you can always find a set to suit your own view point... Thats why I believe stat's are only part of the equation... great scouts, will always find some one or something that stats miss...

[rab_rant]

Thats what I thought mate... but that's stats for you , you can always find a set to suit your own view point... Thats why I believe stat's are only part of the equation... great scouts, will always find some one or something that stats miss...

Stats are like a young girl in a bikini often revealing but they also cover-up the essentials.

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[Dundalis]

Why so upset?... no one ever disagreed with you before?...

So how come the Oakland A's have never won a series, based on how the GM does business?... You do all sports you said .

Lol why would you assume I’m upset? I’m just stating my opinion based on statistical evidence and actually having seen a good amount of both players. Is this not a message board where we get to state opinions? If someone actually has a good understanding of the relationship between scouting and statistical analysis and has a nuanced, more informed breakdown, more than happy to alter my own assessment. It’s like because I’m confident in my opinion and it disagrees with yours I’m upset lol. I replied to a graphic you posted that you couldn’t verify at all cause you don’t know what it’s based on. I’m confident in my analysis and the massive impact of data analytics is well documented. I don’t really need to back up the power of statistical analysis when it’s so well documented, you can literally read about it anywhere including at our own club. It was spoken about plenty in the Leeds doco on Amazon, hows it started to transform our recruiting.

Liverpool’s recruitment is maybe the best around after being terrible spending big money on flops, and it’s been ever since they moved to incorporating heavy data analysis into their recruitment and transfer policies that their success rate has been close to flawless. It’s not news. Billy Beane drove heavy data analytics in baseball, and it’s absolutely proven to change recruitment across major sports for the better. Anecdotally, assessing his failure to win a World Series is a pretty non nuanced way to downplay the huge impact data analytics in recruitment and scouting across major sports. At this point the impact it’s had on recruitment isn’t really a matter of opinion the evidence is pretty conclusive. That’s not to say in person scouting is irrelevant because it’s not, it’s that heavy incorporation of data analytics has objectively improved recruiting across the board. Also some teams combine data analytics and eye test scouting better than others so using anecdotes of individual specific failures to to show it’s not been a game changer in recruitment isn’t a very nuanced way to downplay it.

[Smudge3920]

Good morning Dundalis mate, I wondered why it took you so long to reply... Now I understand , it must have taken ages to digest that thesaurus ...
Look I applaud your dogmatic belief in what you believe, very commendable...The fact is the Oakland A's question is not "an anecdote of individual failure", just the best one as it has been highly publicised. There are many comparable examples....

Time will tell which of us is right about said player's... I will say it again. Stat's do help, no question but they will never replace in full the "human element".

[Smudge3920]

Stats are like a young girl in a bikini often revealing but they also cover-up the essentials.

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[andrewjohnsmith]

Hate to say it, but a lot of clubs are in financial dire straits due to covid and zero gate receipts. I'd be looking to make more opportunity buys like we did with Gelhardt, I don't really advocate the rich taking advantage of the poor but a lot of these clubs are going to be desperate for any kind of income and offloading their prized assets at reduced prices.

[The Subhuman]

Not sure the arguments against the Oakland A's lack of WS success because of their use of metrics and statistics stacks up.

They're the poorest team in the MLB by a distance, spending on an entire team what the Yankees and others would spend on a single player. Statistics have been a massive success for them..They're Aldershot town without the funds you get from playing in the prem, playing in the prem and getting to playoffs. There are much richer teams getting nowhere near Oakland's success. they won the AL West again this year

I'm a huge believer in stats and more so in metrics, but the A's also use the eye test too.

[Smudge3920]

It is an excellent topic though isn't it...

faaip said...

Not sure the arguments against the Oakland A's lack of WS success because of their use of metrics and statistics stacks up.

Agreed, it does not negate the use of statistical analysis, but it is the most highlighted example. Both for use and failure.

They're the poorest team in the MLB by a distance

Exactly... and credit to the GM for looking for and finding a possible solution to the financial problem, in the form of Bill James (A Harvard Economics graduate)

they won the AL West again this year

Yep, and this brings in another level of the discussion, the play off's. In the US play off's are the main part of the season and a very lengthy process, particularly in Ice Hockey, Basketball and the NFL. Long season, many games and set up so as fewer teams as possible do not miss out on the most lucrative part of the season... And "statistically" the powerhouse money teams win the championship's... Which bodes the question " Which is more powerful. Stat's or deep pockets? "

After the A's lost the first play off series after their inception of the use of "statistical analysis" it was agreed around the world of sports that "the A's were fundamentally a flawed team"... This after setting the MLB record for wins in a regular season, and this continues to be the trend at the end of regular season play.

I'm a huge believer in stats and more so in metrics, but the A's also use the eye test too.

I believe that stat's do help, absolutely but they will never replace the human element needed in sports Great scout's)... And sadly, deep pockets!

AJS said...
Hate to say it, but a lot of clubs are in financial dire straits due to covid and zero gate receipts. I'd be looking to make more opportunity buys like we did with Gelhardt, I don't really advocate the rich taking advantage of the poor but a lot of these clubs are going to be desperate for any kind of income and offloading their prized assets at reduced prices.

Concur mate.

[andrewjohnsmith]

Not sure the arguments against the Oakland A's lack of WS success because of their use of metrics and statistics stacks up.

They're the poorest team in the MLB by a distance, spending on an entire team what the Yankees and others would spend on a single player. Statistics have been a massive success for them..They're Aldershot town without the funds you get from playing in the prem, playing in the prem and getting to playoffs. There are much richer teams getting nowhere near Oakland's success. they won the AL West again this year

I'm a huge believer in stats and more so in metrics, but the A's also use the eye test too.

The A's are proof that statistics work. Winning a world series is not the universal measure of success. Theyre a team that regularly pnch above their weight. It's like saying that a team isn't successful because they've never won the premier league. But success for teams like Burnley, Bournemouth, Southampton and the number of years they stay in the premier league versus richer clubs that linger in the lower leagues.

[The Subhuman]

So many bad or poor scouts in the US though, good scouting is rare imo. The gifted amateurs often showing them up..

[Smudge3920]

The A's are proof that statistics work. Winning a world series is not the universal measure of success. Theyre a team that regularly pnch above their weight. It's like saying that a team isn't successful because they've never won the premier league. But success for teams like Burnley, Bournemouth, Southampton and the number of years they stay in the premier league versus richer clubs that linger in the lower leagues.

Could not agree more with you Andrew... but sadly success (in sports) is measured on winning major trophy's, not coming close.