Where will we get the five wins we need?

Boo Radley · Post by **Boo Radley** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:46 pm

In spite of yesterday’s loss we are still sitting in a very good position in the league. If more results go our way today we could still be in twelfth with games in hand on teams around and below us at the end of the day.

Considering that staying in this league is the primary aim of the season, and 38 points plus should be enough to achieve that, where do people think we will get those 5 wins to make us safe?

Quality of performances and form seems to be varying wildly for many teams this year, and we’re seeing improvements in the teams behind us. So, are there games we should be targeting, are there must win games yet, and will away games give us a better chance of points considering the state of the ER surface?

Post by **Irish Ian** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 1:59 pm

We could beat anybody in this league when it clicks.

danhirons · Post by **danhirons** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:04 pm

Boo Radley wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:46 pm In spite of yesterday’s loss we are still sitting in a very good position in the league. If more results go our way today we could still be in twelfth with games in hand on teams around and below us at the end of the day.

Considering that staying in this league is the primary aim of the season, and 38 points plus should be enough to achieve that, where do people think we will get those 5 wins to make us safe?

Quality of performances and form seems to be varying wildly for many teams this year, and we’re seeing improvements in the teams behind us. So, are there games we should be targeting, are there must win games yet, and will away games give us a better chance of points considering the state of the ER surface?

off topic but just started reading to kill a mockingbird and now get your user name!

Boo Radley · Post by **Boo Radley** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:17 pm

danhirons wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:04 pm off topic but just started reading to kill a mockingbird and now get your user name!

It’s a fabulous book danhirons, one of my all time favorites - enjoy!

LUFC_BOS · Post by **LUFC_BOS** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:37 pm

Irish Ian wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 1:59 pm We could beat anybody in this league when it clicks.

Trouble is we can be beaten by anyone as well because of our in consistency. We have had a decent run against teams lower than us but some of them are finding their feet. We should have turned Brighton over. I would hate to be bookie right now and peg odds for us.

Post by **Irish Ian** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:47 pm

LUFC_BOS wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:37 pm Trouble is we can be beaten by anyone as well because of our in consistency. We have had a decent run against teams lower than us but some of them are finding their feet. We should have turned Brighton over. I would hate to be bookie right now and peg odds for us.

Thats very true, we will blow hot and cold all season, but we are close to survival.

And the statos are on our side.... unless there is a yet to be coded algorithm for "doing a Leeds"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... er-league/

LUFC_BOS · Post by **LUFC_BOS** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:02 pm

Irish Ian wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:47 pm Thats very true, we will blow hot and cold all season, but we are close to survival.

And the statos are on our side.... unless there is a yet to be coded algorithm for "doing a Leeds"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... er-league/

Please Ian do not tempt the stats

! Leeds first team top of the Championship at Xmas not to promote, largest defecit loss in the FA cup to a lower division team etc. Just keep our fingers crossed for this season.
What the hell we might just beat Liverpool, Scum, Chelski, Spurs and the Arse for our 5 wins. So unpredictable with us , not good for the heart Leeds

Lorimer46 · Post by **Lorimer46** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:09 pm

I certainly expect us to get the results we need to consolidate our position in the the league this season , never really expected us to be a top 8 team this year . There's teams that we're far better than and we should be able to beat

Post by **1964white** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:13 pm

LUFC_BOS wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:37 pm Trouble is we can be beaten by anyone as well because of our in consistency. We have had a decent run against teams lower than us but some of them are finding their feet. We should have turned Brighton over. I would hate to be bookie right now and peg odds for us.

Post by **1964white** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:15 pm

Can't see us winning many games at ER

Boo Radley · Post by **Boo Radley** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:29 pm

1964white wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:15 pm Can't see us winning many games at ER

That’s no small issue 64. It potentially halves our “good” chances of collecting the points we need during the poor weather in particular.

Boo Radley · Post by **Boo Radley** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:44 pm

Irish Ian wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 1:59 pm We could beat anybody in this league when it clicks.

Half way through the season, I really don’t think we can say that anymore.

If we play a team with a solid defence and a quick, high scoring counterattack then they will beat us every time. Leicester, Spurs, Man U and Crystal Palace have already proven this. We are not able to beat that kind of team this season. We may end up with a Liverpool type scoreline but we simply do not score enough, or defend well enough to win a shoot out.

Luckily, very few Premier League teams set up just to pack the box, as they are another type of team we usually don’t beat. And that has been the case for years.

For me, many of the mid table teams offer us key points opportunities. Some, like Wolves, Arsenal and Newcastle, still believe that they are better than where they are in the table and come out to play, but not at a level that we couldn’t manage. We need to focus on these games for the wins to drive us over the line. Anything gained from the top teams is cream.

Post by **Irish Ian** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:52 pm

Anyone else think it might be a blessing in disguise to come 17th?

That way it makes it more evident where the future signings/ breakthroughs need to be made.

Mid table and we may be stuck with contract extensions on some who really have hit their peak.

It just pushes the issues into next season.

SaraM · Post by **SaraM** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:56 pm

You could rephrase the question, and ask how Fulham in 18th are going to turn around an 11 point deficit against Leeds. That's what it would take, currently, for us to end up in the bottom three. Unless you assume we're 'falling apart again', it isn't going to happen.

Boo Radley · Post by **Boo Radley** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 4:09 pm

Irish Ian wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:52 pm Anyone else think it might be a blessing in disguise to come 17th?

That way it makes it more evident where the future signings/ breakthroughs need to be made.

Mid table and we may be stuck with contract extensions on some who really have hit their peak.

It just pushes the issues into next season.

That would be way too scary Irish Ian! Our fan base would have a collective nervous breakdown if that was likely to happen.

You are correct though about assuming the current squad could survive if we managed a top ten position. Sheffield United are the warning of this type of success leading to longer term calamity.

Finish around where we are would do me fine and leave enough of question marks about the make up of the team for next season.

Post by **1964white** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 4:32 pm

Irish Ian wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:52 pm Anyone else think it might be a blessing in disguise to come 17th?

That way it makes it more evident where the future signings/ breakthroughs need to be made.

Mid table and we may be stuck with contract extensions on some who really have hit their peak.

It just pushes the issues into next season.

Good points Ian

Post by **Irish Ian** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 4:48 pm

SaraM wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 3:56 pm You could rephrase the question, and ask how Fulham in 18th are going to turn around an 11 point deficit against Leeds. That's what it would take, currently, for us to end up in the bottom three. Unless you assume we're 'falling apart again', it isn't going to happen.

I suppose the answer to that conundrum is 48 years supporting Leeds....

But I make a wider point.

Clacton White · Post by **Clacton White** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:36 pm

LUFC_BOS wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:37 pm Trouble is we can be beaten by anyone as well because of our in consistency. We have had a decent run against teams lower than us but some of them are finding their feet. We should have turned Brighton over. I would hate to be bookie right now and peg odds for us.

And that's the problem , when it works it's great , but goes wrong and it goes wrong big time . Probably 5 players of genuine top flight quality at the club , some average and some probably championship level . The depth most definitely isn't there it's a makeshift defence right now , at least two top quality signings needed right now and a couple in summer to make sure of progress . Probably 3 to 5 years off a genuine top 6 challenge right now .

Post by **Irish Ian** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:07 pm

Clacton White wrote: ↑Sun Jan 17, 2021 5:36 pm And that's the problem , when it works it's great , but goes wrong and it goes wrong big time . Probably 5 players of genuine top flight quality at the club , some average and some probably championship level . The depth most definitely isn't there it's a makeshift defence right now , at least two top quality signings needed right now and a couple in summer to make sure of progress . Probably 3 to 5 years off a genuine top 6 challenge right now .

Extremely doubtful anyone will come in this window Clacton, remember we spent £97m and sold noone. Plus extra wages and bonuses for the players. And then the JKA scenario..
Then the money needed for the stadium.

Point is we haven't any money and have borrowed against future TV cash already.

Boo Radley · Post by **Boo Radley** » Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:40 pm

The difference between finishing 12th and 17th last year was £20M. To us that’s a big difference when we have such an investment requirement at the end of this year.

https://www.planetfootball.com/quick-re ... ize-money/

Where will we get the five wins we need?

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