Leeds United have a 97% chance of Premier League survival

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YorkshireSquare
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Leeds United have a 97% chance of Premier League survival

Post by YorkshireSquare »



It’s always a bit nervy being a Leeds United fan, especially during the run in to our Championship winning season with Brentford and West Brom breathing down our necks. Football is awash with statistics and analytics these days and to give myself some kind of reassurance that we would get the job done I would occasionally turn to websites such as Experimental 3-6-1 and American political and sports predictions site FiveThirtyEight. The predictions last season were favourable and turned out to be true as we romped home to the title. With half of the Premier League season now played I turn yet again to FiveThirtyEight to see how they think we will fare this season.

At the heart of FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts are SPI ratings, a best estimate of a teams overall strength. In the system, every team has an offensive rating that represents the number of goals they would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede. These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available, the team would be expected to take if that match were played over and over again. Given the ratings for any two teams, they project the result of a match between them.





With 18 games gone Leeds United currently sit in 12th place in the table on 23 points, the bad news is based on the remaining games FiveThirtyEight give us less than a 1% chance of winning the Premier League! On the flip side they think we only have a 3% chance of being relegated and as such a 97£ chance of Premier League survival. The calculations would put us 12th place doubling our points haul to 46 come the end of the season with a 9 point gap to Arsenal in 11th on 55 points. Set for the according to the predictions are our fellow promoted sides Fulham and West Brom along with bottom of the pile Sheffield United.

The Blades, currently on a meagre 5 points are predicted to pick up 18 points in the second half of the season but it wouldn’t be enough to move them off the bottom and they have a 93% chance of being relegated. West Brom are predicted to finish on 25 points with a 89% chance of going down with Fulham completing the relegation spots on 34 points and a 47% chance of relegation. Burnley and Newcastle will be looking over their shoulders with The Clarets having a 25% chance of relegation and The Magpies a 22% chance of playing in the Championship next season.
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Smudge3920
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Re: 97% Chance of Survival

Post by Smudge3920 »

I have been posting those stats on a weekly basis untill the the last game as the variance was so minimul... I usually post them on a monday following the last of the weekend fixtures... very litlle, actually no response to the posts at all... I will keep posting them however.
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Re: Leeds United have a 97% chance of Premier League survival

Post by BillyBremner »

Statistics reassure but with Leeds United all seems beyond figures and percentages. It is more of a Shakespearien outcome !! Maybe we finish 5th or fight for our lives in the last minutes of injury time in the last match !


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YorkshireSquare
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Re: Leeds United have a 97% chance of Premier League survival

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BillyBremner wrote: Sun Jan 17, 2021 9:28 pm Statistics reassure but with Leeds United all seems beyond figures and percentages. It is more of a Shakespearien outcome !! Maybe we finish 5th or fight for our lives in the last minutes of injury time in the last match !

I don't know if FiveThirtyEight have factored in a 'Leeds United' variable into their predictions to be fair.
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