The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

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Ellandback1
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Breakfast Debate The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Ellandback1 »



Good Morning. It's Monday 16th May, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road...


It's going down to the wire

Leeds were given an eleventh hour reprieve from life in the Championship after Pascal Struijk's injury time equaliser saw them claw their way out of the bottom three. Unfortunately, clemency is in short supply when you're Leeds Utd, and a new date with destiny has been pencilled in for 16;00 hrs, this Sunday in South West London.

Leeds started brightly, and were unfortunate not to take an early lead. Brighton keeper Robert Sanchez failed to keep hold of Kalvin Phillips inswinging corner. Gelhardt reacted quickest. He turned, pivoted, and was about to smash the ball into the roof of the net, only for Liam Cooper to get in the way.

As the first half progressed, Brighton took a stranglehold of the game, and were soon ahead. Danny Welbeck was too strong for Llorente as the former Manchester Utd striker latched on to Bissouma's through ball. He bared down on the Leeds Utd goalmouth, before delicately chipping the ball into the back of the net.

Klich could have equalised just before half-time after a well executed set piece. Raphinha rolled the ball to the edge of the area (from a corner). The Polish International's strike looked destined for the back of the net, only for Sanchez to make a stunning fingertip save.

The Spanish shot stopper was called upon again with twenty-five minutes remaining. Raphinha's 30 yard free kick was heading for the top upright until Sanchez managed to claw the ball away from danger. The hosts went even closer on 73 minutes. Rodrigo curled a great cross into the Brighton penalty area, slicing the Brighton defence apart. Unfortunately, Cucurella's timely intervention was enough for Raphinha to fluff his lines.

Seeing this effort go narrowly wide, was too much for many Leeds fans, who out of sheer desperation suddenly turned on Radrizzani, and the Leeds board. Up until this point, the Elland Road faithful had stayed loyal to the cause, but there's only so much even a Leeds fan can take before they snap. Despair and animosity turned to jubilation, deep into injury time when Pascal Struijk netted his first goal for the club.

Llorente's cross found Gelhardt in space, deep in the Seagulls penalty area. Marshalled by Dunk, Cucurella and Mac Allister, the Leeds youngster made his way to the Brighton by-line, beating his men, and delivering a perfect cross across the goalmouth to Struijk to keep Leeds alive going in to the last game of the season.





Why hasn't Gelhardt been used more

'If Messi would have done it, you’d be going mad.' Those were the words of Paul Merson following the wizardry shown by Joe Gelhardt in setting up the last gasp equalizer against Brighton on Sunday. The 20 year old has endured a frustrating 21/22 season, not because of his ability, which has never been in question, but why he has been largely ignored up until a few weeks ago.

With the amount of injuries Leeds have had, it's been an absolute travesty how Gelhardt has been treated, especially under Bielsa's watch. To play Rodrigo, James and Roberts out of position week in, week out when we have a square peg for a square hole has left many bewildered. Being left on the bench to rot also had a detrimental effect on the U23's as he was omitted from playing for them in case he was needed for first team action.

As of a couple of weeks ago, Gelhardt had played fewer minutes than Bamford this season, prompting former Leeds keeper, now pundit Paul Robinson to recently suggest that Gelhardt should quit Elland Road this Summer.

If we had this conversation before Sunday, I could have easily said he’ll go and leave to play every week because he’s good enough and he wants to. But he got a surprise start against Arsenal, which is what I’ve been calling for for a long time. It was difficult for him because Luke Ayling got sent off and they had to play with 10 men but they haven’t got a recognised number nine without Patrick Bamford.

Why they’ve tried to make do with Rodrigo, Dan James, et cetera and playing different formations when they can play the same formation but put Gelhardt there. I don’t know why they haven’t done it. He’s more than good enough to play in the Premier League and if he’s not going to get his opportunity at Leeds then he should maybe look at moving on.

There’ll be no shortage of takers for him and he’s at an age now where he needs to play whether that’s in the Premier League or in the top-half of the Championship. He could score 25 goals a season in the Championship for a top club.




Leeds still favourites for the drop

Bookies still believe that Leeds will go down this season, even after their last gasp heroics yesterday. Leeds are 11/8 favourites to be playing Championship football next season, with Burnley 13/8 and Everton 7/1. Fortunately for the Whites, both Burnley and Everton lost at the weekend, but both have a game in hand. The Clarets face a visit to Villa park, whilst the Toffee's entertain Crystal Palace.

If Everton beat Palace, they are safe. If they draw, they would need just a point or a win at the Emirates, assuming Leeds beat Brentford. Burnley would only need a point against Newcastle on the final day if they beat Aston Villa on Thursday. If they lose both their games, then whatever happens, Leeds wouldstay up, even if they lost at Brentford.


Last edited by Ellandback1 on Mon May 16, 2022 10:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by William »

Not sure if it was because of the filtering but the "Marcello Bielsa" and "Sack the board" chants sounded pretty muted on the TV.

Perhaps some who were there could comment.

At least we have now until thursday to hold on to a little bit of hope.

The supercomputerthingywotsit ( which looks at the numbers not betting trends) actually moved Leeds slightly closer to survival 68% to 56%.

I look at it more than bookmakers odds which is basically greedy fools putting their hard earned into the hands of greedy very rich manipulative people. But hey that is what sport is for.

Great assist by Joffy
We have a diamond in our hands.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Mountain »

With all those pundits like Merson saying how badly Gelhardt was treated by Bielsa, it's strange that Gelhardt's own mother thanked him for what he did for her son.

Sure what would the Gelhardts know.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Chilli D »

To produce the bit of skill that Joffy did with so little time remaining and what was at stake was astonishing.
Merson is right, it was Messiesque.
Bewildering that he has had so few minutes this season.
His ability was there for all to see when he came on against Wolves at ER but he was hardly used for weeks after that.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by faaip »

Ellandback1 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 8:11 am

Good Morning. It's Monday 16th May, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road...


It's going down to the wire

Leeds were given an eleventh hour reprieve from life in the Championship after Pascal Struijk's injury time equaliser saw them claw their way out of the bottom three. Unfortunately, clemency is in short supply when you're Leeds Utd, and a new date with destiny has been pencilled in for 16;00 hrs, this Sunday in South West London.

Leeds started brightly, and were unfortunate not to take an early lead. Brighton keeper Robert Sanchez failed to keep hold of Kalvin Phillips inswinging corner. Gelhardt reacted quickest. He turned, pivoted, and was about to smash the ball into the roof of the net, only for Liam Cooper to get in the way.

As the first half progressed, Brighton took a stranglehold of the game, and were soon ahead. Danny Welbeck was too strong for Llorente as the former Manchester Utd striker latched on to Bissouma's through ball. He bared down on the Leeds Utd goalmouth, before delicately chipping the ball into the back of the net.

Klich could have equalised just before half-time after a well executed set piece. Raphinha rolled the ball to the edge of the area (from a corner). The Polish International's strike looked destined for the back of the net, only for Sanchez to make a stunning fingertip save.

The Spanish shot stopper was called upon again with twenty-five minutes remaining. Raphinha's 30 yard free kick was heading for the top upright until Sanchez managed to claw the ball away from danger. The hosts went even closer on 73 minutes. Second half substitute Jamie Shackleton curled a great cross into the Brighton penalty area, slicing the Brighton defence apart. Unfortunately, Cucurella's timely intervention was enough for Raphinha to fluff his lines
Rodrigo?
1 - Revie
2 - Bielsa
3 - Wilkinson

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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Jaydog »

William wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 8:44 am Not sure if it was because of the filtering but the "Marcello Bielsa" and "Sack the board" chants sounded pretty muted on the TV.

Perhaps some who were there could comment.

At least we have now until thursday to hold on to a little bit of hope.

The supercomputerthingywotsit ( which looks at the numbers not betting trends) actually moved Leeds slightly closer to survival 68% to 56%.

I look at it more than bookmakers odds which is basically greedy fools putting their hard earned into the hands of greedy very rich manipulative people. But hey that is what sport is for.

Great assist by Joffy
We have a diamond in our hands.
Bookmaker traders are looking at probabilities and remaining games to form a market. But increasingly they use Betfair as a guide like all on course bookmakers. I’ve been in and around the betting industry for a big chunk of my life and Betfair is god as it’s effectively brings together a massive consensus potentially from millions of people.
Betfair is currently 5/6 Lufc, 15/8 Burnley & 15/2 Everton. That is the market I trust the most. I hope to god it’s wrong.
A crumb of comfort is only 653k has been traded on the relegation market (227k on Leeds) as opposed to near 9 million on the PL winner. This is peanuts, virtually nothing in Betfair world. Definitely wrong then :shhh:
Last edited by Jaydog on Mon May 16, 2022 9:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by faaip »

The simple fact that Burnley/Everton have two to play will mean that they have more chances to avoid the drop..
1 - Revie
2 - Bielsa
3 - Wilkinson

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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Clitheroe White »

More Joffy - definitely!
No idea why we have not seen more of him given the sub standard we have seen from people who have acted in the striker role.

There was a lot of heart on the pitch yesterday, especially in the last 25 minutes when we seemed to lose the fear and just play.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Madron »

Jaydog wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:17 am Bookmaker traders are looking at probabilities and remaining games to form a market. But increasingly they use Betfair as a guide like all on course bookmakers. I’ve been in and around the betting industry for a big chunk of my life and Betfair is god as it’s effectively brings together a massive consensus potentially from millions of people.
Betfair is currently 5/6 Lufc, 15/8 Burnley & 15/2 Everton. That is the market I trust the most. I hope to god it’s wrong.
I was going to say the same thing re Betfair. They are about as true reflection as you can get ,especially as the books are usually very close to 100%.
According to the exchange odds , without another point we are 2/11 to be relegated.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Jaydog »

Madron wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:33 am I was going to say the same thing re Betfair. They are about as true reflection as you can get ,especially as the books are usually very close to 100%.
According to the exchange odds , without another point we are 2/11 to be relegated.
Spot on Ron. I tend to trust it more when there’s a massive amount traded as there’s a bigger cross section of opinion. Relegation market is a tiddler tbh, and BF isn’t always correct.
No more points and we go for definite because I think Burnley will definitely grind out 1 at least.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by William »

Jaydog wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:17 am Bookmaker traders are looking at probabilities and remaining games to form a market. But increasingly they use Betfair as a guide like all on course bookmakers. I’ve been in and around the betting industry for a big chunk of my life and Betfair is god as it’s effectively brings together a massive consensus potentially from millions of people.
Betfair is currently 5/6 Lufc, 15/8 Burnley & 15/2 Everton. That is the market I trust the most. I hope to god it’s wrong.
A crumb of comfort is only 653k has been traded on the relegation market (227k on Leeds) as opposed to near 9 million on the PL winner. This is peanuts, virtually nothing in Betfair world. Definitely wrong then :shhh:
Bookmakers look at what money is being put on and change the odds as needed,
That way they ensure that they will not come out of the transaction on the wrong end of things.
Marsch OUT

Football has undergone a process of bielsification; pressing and possessing, passing rather than dribbling, intercepting high up the field rather than making last-ditch tackles, are in vogue.

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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Kennyb41 »

As if there wasn't enough to worry about - but Gerrard could win the title for Lpool if he decides to field a weakened side V Burnley on Thursday and saves/rests his best 11 for Sunday where a draw or win at Citeh could hand Lpool the title.

That's my biggest concern for now because after beating Burnley 3-0 away, i had the home tie down as a banker for Villa.

If Lpool beat Soton their game in hand and Burnley get something at Villa, it's gonna be a Super Sunday indeed.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Madron »

Jaydog wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:39 am Spot on Ron. I tend to trust it more when there’s a massive amount traded as there’s a bigger cross section of opinion. Relegation market is a tiddler tbh, and BF isn’t always correct.
No more points and we go for definite because I think Burnley will definitely grind out 1 at least.
2/11 is not definite. not far off though. :)
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Madron »

William wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:55 am Bookmakers look at what money is being put on and change the odds as needed,
That way they ensure that they will not come out of the transaction on the wrong end of things.
The way bookmakers survive is because of their overround books, Makes it impossible for them to lose .
Surprised there are still any surviving to be honest.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Ellandback1 »

faaip wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:12 amRodrigo?
You spotted the deliberate mistake, and you win a prize... :shock: :)
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by faaip »

Ellandback1 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:30 am You spotted the deliberate mistake, and you win a prize... :shock: :)
Is it Marsch sacked?
1 - Revie
2 - Bielsa
3 - Wilkinson

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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Chilli D »

Kennyb41 wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:58 am As if there wasn't enough to worry about - but Gerrard could win the title for Lpool if he decides to field a weakened side V Burnley on Thursday and saves/rests his best 11 for Sunday where a draw or win at Citeh could hand Lpool the title.

I hadn't even considered that scenario Kenny.
Hopefully Gerrard will be more professional than that despite how much he loves Liverpool and is their next manager in waiting.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Jaydog »

William wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 9:55 am Bookmakers look at what money is being put on and change the odds as needed,
That way they ensure that they will not come out of the transaction on the wrong end of things.
It’s a business. Bet365 owner paid about 20 million corporation tax recently. I very rarely bet anywhere else but Betfair these days
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Kennyb41 »

I asked my mate a Villa fan why they'd suddenly appeared around the relegation zone a couple of weeks back, he said Gerrard had been blooding some youngsters to look at them, he said we're back to full strength v Burnley for that 3-0, he added they are definitely a lot weaker when like us they lose or rest 2/3 vital players.

If Lpool beat Soton as expected, they are 1pt behind Citeh, Villa are capable of getting a draw away to Citeh and i feel Gerrard would try for that, he'd be a bigger hero than already on Merseyside, especially if it meant the Quadruple.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Monday 16th May) It's going down to the wire

Post by Kennyb41 »

This is where having people on your side can be a big help.
Villa are on the beach, who does Gerrard prefer to help, Burnley or Leeds ? Have Leeds fans ever upset Gerrard ?

It's a piece of pizz for him to say 3/4 players have a niggle but will be right for Sunday, big worry in my eyes.
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