The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

For everything Leeds United related and everything not - Have your say... the Marching on Together way!
Forum rules
Please be sure you are acquainted with the forum rules outlined within our FAQs.

Help support the site by using our Amazon Affiliate link when making any purchases from Amazon.
User avatar
Ellandback1
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 10308
Joined: Sat Mar 24, 2018 3:01 pm
Twitter: @EllandBack1
Location: The truth is out there

Breakfast Debate The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by Ellandback1 »



Good Morning. It's Thursday 20th March, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road...


Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Beren Cross has penned an interesting piece in 'The Athletic' investigating why the Whites have performed so badly this season during early kick-off's?

While Leeds have racked up an impressive 20 victories in games starting from 3pm onwards, their record in earlier slots is starkly different. Out of ten matches kicking off before 3pm, they've only managed to secure two wins. It’s true that the sheer volume of afternoon games (26 compared to 10 early ones) skews the raw win count.

Digging deeper into the points per game reveals a more concerning picture. Leeds are averaging a significant 1.4 fewer points per game when the whistle blows before 3pm. This drop in performance is mirrored in their attacking output; they are also scoring 1.4 fewer goals per game in these earlier fixtures.

Intriguingly, data suggests this dip in results shouldn't be happening. Expected goals (xG) paint a picture of dominance for Leeds in these early games. In eight out of the ten early kick-offs, Leeds' xG exceeded their opponents'. Even in the two games where their xG was lower (against West Brom and Blackburn), the margins were minimal or even in Leeds' favour. Daniel Farke is well aware that his side have been dropping points during early kick-off's and is exploring what small changes can make to turn the tide in Leeds favour...

We have changed, for the last 12.30pm-kick-off away games, a bit the process to get up even earlier, to have additional walks in the morning, to change something,” said Farke. “Yes, but even if you change something (it’s no guarantee of success). Sometimes, it’s also a bit of a coincidence. You don’t have to be too superstitious, otherwise, we wouldn’t have to travel tomorrow (Friday). It’s difficult to explain. With respect, we are travelling to Portsmouth or London, it’s not like we travel to Nigeria or to a very different time zone. It’s still proper UK air, UK timings and I don’t want to interpret too much into it — but yes, it’s a fact and we have to step up a little bit.

We try to investigate this and even if it’s about giving little hints to individual players about what is necessary with the biorhythm to perform at 12.30pm, this is important. Normally, we start our training somewhere between 10am and 11am, so we are used to performing relatively early in the morning. It’s really difficult to say. I like later kick-offs. Perhaps it’s just because of me, perhaps I should change my attitude, but I can’t help myself. I’m a bit old school. I love 3pm kick-offs. I also love when the floodlights are on at Elland Road, it’s a special atmosphere. I wouldn’t say my team talk differs at 8.30am. I try to motivate them and to set them on fire, the same way I would do before a 3pm or 8pm kick-off, but we try to look into these things. I do not have the perfect explanation for how we win every game.




How can anyone think its a good idea

Whispers of Kalvin Phillips making a sensational return to Leeds United this summer are gathering momentum, fuelled by fresh reports in the Sun. For many Leeds fans, the idea of ‘The Yorkshire Pirlo’ back in white is a nostalgic pull, a reminder of brighter days. But scratch beneath the surface of this potential reunion, and a much more complex picture emerges.

It’s fair to say Kalvin Phillips’ career trajectory since departing Elland Road for Manchester City in the summer of 2022 has been less than stellar. His time at the Etihad was largely spent warming the bench, followed by uninspiring loan spells. West Ham United didn't see the midfield maestro they hoped for, and his current stint at Ipswich Town has been equally underwhelming. To put it bluntly, his ratings have slipped down the pecking order quicker than a Keir Starmer popularity contest.

The stark reality is, even if Leeds find themselves navigating another season in the Championship, a Phillips homecoming might not be the romantic fairytale it seems. He is simply not the player who dominated midfields and earned England caps in a Leeds shirt. The stats don’t lie; currently languishing at a lowly 23rd in Ipswich’s ‘Whoscored’ rankings speaks volumes.

The reported figure of £20 million being touted frankly bewildering given his current performances. Is this wishful thinking, agent maneuvering, or a genuine, albeit questionable, strategy from Elland Road? This isn't the Kalvin Phillips that fans remember – and sometimes, the most romantic reunions are best left as fond memories.





I'm waiting for my chance - Schmidt

Isaac Schmidt arrived at Leeds United last summer with expectations of bolstering the defensive ranks, but the Swiss defender has found himself on the fringes at Elland Road. Signed from St Gallen for £2.5 million on a four-year deal, the 25yo has clocked up less than 30 minutes of game time for Daniel Farke's side this season, making him something of a forgotten figure in the Championship promotion chase.

Despite his limited opportunities at club level, Schmidt's potential has not gone unnoticed. last week saw the defender receive his first call-up to the Swiss national team, a testament to his underlying quality. As Switzerland prepare to face Northern Ireland and Luxembourg, Schmidt finds himself in contention for international minutes, a stark contrast to his Leeds experience. Speaking to the Swiss media from the national team camp, Schmidt addressed his situation at Leeds with a remarkably patient outlook...

The club showed me clear prospects and made it clear to me that they see my potential as a regular starter," he said. "It takes time to establish yourself at a club like (Leeds). I'm waiting for my chance.

User avatar
mentalcase
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 10177
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2021 3:19 pm

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by mentalcase »

Morning all
Once you sign for the money you have to lake games when you are told to, no point the club moaning, they get paid for silly o'clock kick offs, the manager and coaches need to address the issue and sharpish.

f**k Phillips he's shite.

Hopefully Issac gets a chance as he's not shite he's Schmidt
" Man is not affected by events but by the view he takes of them "
User avatar
Sean_Nile
Manager
Manager
Posts: 3222
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2023 2:25 pm

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by Sean_Nile »

12:30 kick-offs are a footballing disaster. Players wander around half-asleep, misplaced passes outnumber completed ones, and the tempo resembles a Sunday League side recovering from a night out... or a slow waltz on Strictly.

But there’s a fix, Liggy’s Lindisfarne Pan-Fried Puffin with a Lemon Jus, the ultimate pre-match meal. When washed down with a K Cider and a dash of Night Nurse, this daring concoction jolts the body into action, unlocking untapped footballing potential.

The puffin’s natural agility and speed somehow transfer to the player, the lemon jus delivers a sharp wake-up call, and the K Cider–Night Nurse combo sends the brain into a state of chaotic confidence where everything feels possible, especially a 40-yard screamer into the back of the net by Tanaka.

The results are undeniable. Players move with uncharacteristic energy, charging into tackles like they’ve had three espressos and a motivational speech in Italian by Cellino.

Keepers start attempting no-look passes, centre-backs think they’re Beckenbauer, and in a moment of pure madness, Illan Meslier pulls off a Cruyff turn inside his own six-yard box before pinging a 50-yard pass straight to the opposition winger.

Opponents, meanwhile, are completely rattled, unsure whether they’re up against a team of footballing geniuses or just a squad powered by dubious nutrition... or Columbian marching powder. Either way, the early kick-off curse is broken with pan fried Puffin.
Last edited by Sean_Nile on Thu Mar 20, 2025 10:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
Tom the Cat
Reserve Player
Reserve Player
Posts: 300
Joined: Tue Apr 02, 2024 8:33 am

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by Tom the Cat »

I believe that Phillips has said that he wants to return to Leeds IF we are promoted to the Premier League - who the hell does this little has been upstart think he is !!!
User avatar
Chilli D
Site Contributor
Site Contributor
Posts: 7431
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2018 2:31 pm

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by Chilli D »

We've seen so little of Isaac Schmidt so far it's difficult to know what his best position is. What I will say though, he's looked decent when he has played so I'm a bit surprised DF hasn't played him more.
If DF isn't willing to play him this season I don't hold out much hope for him if we get promoted.
The flowers of common sense do not grow in everyone's garden
User avatar
The Subhuman
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 64259
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:03 am
Location: God's own county

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by The Subhuman »

Chilli D wrote: Thu Mar 20, 2025 10:11 am We've seen so little of Isaac Schmidt so far it's difficult to know what his best position is. What I will say though, he's looked decent when he has played so I'm a bit surprised DF hasn't played him more.
If DF isn't willing to play him this season I don't hold out much hope for him if we get promoted.
Right wing back for me.... right footed and I'm not a fan of inverted wing backs
"Any artistic decision which is based on whether or not you're going to make money isn't an artistic decision, it's a business decision"
User avatar
1964white
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 139284
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 8:46 am
Twitter: @1964white

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by 1964white »

mentalcase wrote: Thu Mar 20, 2025 9:39 am f**k Phillips he's shite.
Our fans forget Kalvin is nowhere near the same player he was under Bielsa or the EURO 2020 when KP was one of the outstanding stars in the tournament.
User avatar
The Subhuman
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 64259
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:03 am
Location: God's own county

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by The Subhuman »

I'm ok with Kalvin returning at the right price, 20M will be click bait everyone is falling for again. At 10 -12 M he'd be a good addition and he'd have to come and fight for a place. But hell of an upgrade on Rothwell.
Last edited by The Subhuman on Thu Mar 20, 2025 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Any artistic decision which is based on whether or not you're going to make money isn't an artistic decision, it's a business decision"
User avatar
The Subhuman
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 64259
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:03 am
Location: God's own county

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by The Subhuman »

As for early kick off, like our "London" issues it's a wierd stat but no good reason for it. But good we're making a thing about it, that won't get into players heads at all
"Any artistic decision which is based on whether or not you're going to make money isn't an artistic decision, it's a business decision"
User avatar
1964white
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 139284
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 8:46 am
Twitter: @1964white

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by 1964white »

Chilli D wrote: Thu Mar 20, 2025 10:11 am We've seen so little of Isaac Schmidt so far it's difficult to know what his best position is. What I will say though, he's looked decent when he has played so I'm a bit surprised DF hasn't played him more.
If DF isn't willing to play him this season I don't hold out much hope for him if we get promoted.
Firpo, Bogle & Byram are so strong in the wing-back positions, I can understand why Schmidt has only started in the cup competitions, Chilli.

We'll need even better than our three mainstays next season,
User avatar
Tyzy
Manager
Manager
Posts: 2999
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: Leeds

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by Tyzy »

I wouldn't want KP back players returning for a second stint seldon work out.I remember Batty coming back and that didn't turn out too well.
User avatar
1964white
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 139284
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 8:46 am
Twitter: @1964white

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by 1964white »

Looking at the Whoscored ratings on Kalvin Phillips, his seasonal rating at Ipswich is 6.23, which isn't great.

Ipswich, have conceded 34 goals in the 17 games KP has played as a DM for the Tractor boys.

We'd need more pace in our Premier League midfield.
User avatar
1964white
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 139284
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 8:46 am
Twitter: @1964white

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by 1964white »

Tyzy wrote: Thu Mar 20, 2025 11:03 am I wouldn't want KP back players returning for a second stint seldon work out.I remember Batty coming back and that didn't turn out too well.
Agree Tyzy :tup: Football fans are generally sentimental, although I wouldn't say no to Raphinia. :lol:
ruttermania
Youth Team
Youth Team
Posts: 208
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2023 9:47 am

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by ruttermania »

There is a pragmatic case to be made for re-signing Kalvin which would be significantly related to the question of what the actual cost would be . The reality is that for the first three years or so the focus would have to be on a fairly grim struggle for survival where the sole object would be to finish ahead of the three worst teams in the Premiership. That being the reality a double pivot of Ampadu and Phillips focused primarily on shielding your defence would make a lot of sense although you would be limiting your attacking options. While his figures don't look great since he left Leeds I think there are a number of contributory factors which have caused the drop off in form. On the 12.30 kick offs surely the main question is why do Leeds feature in so many of them ?
User avatar
The Subhuman
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 64259
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:03 am
Location: God's own county

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by The Subhuman »

ruttermania wrote: Thu Mar 20, 2025 12:26 pm There is a pragmatic case to be made for re-signing Kalvin which would be significantly related to the question of what the actual cost would be . The reality is that for the first three years or so the focus would have to be on a fairly grim struggle for survival where the sole object would be to finish ahead of the three worst teams in the Premiership. That being the reality a double pivot of Ampadu and Phillips focused primarily on shielding your defence would make a lot of sense although you would be limiting your attacking options. While his figures don't look great since he left Leeds I think there are a number of contributory factors which have caused the drop off in form. On the 12.30 kick offs surely the main question is why do Leeds feature in so many of them ?
We know why so not sure that's the main question
"Any artistic decision which is based on whether or not you're going to make money isn't an artistic decision, it's a business decision"
User avatar
mentalcase
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 10177
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2021 3:19 pm

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by mentalcase »

The Subhuman wrote: Thu Mar 20, 2025 10:54 am I'm ok with Kalvin returning at the right price, 20M will be click bait everyone is falling for again. At 10 -12 M he'd be a good addition and he'd have to come and fight for a place. But hell of an upgrade on Rothwell.
I know you don't like Rothwell but wheres the proof of that statement, Phillips is slower, and nowhere near as fit or agile and takes a pisspoor deadball.
Rothwell has played roughly 200 less games for LUFC and hopefully his career is on the up, phillips' career is on the decline and rapidly so.
" Man is not affected by events but by the view he takes of them "
User avatar
Sean_Nile
Manager
Manager
Posts: 3222
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2023 2:25 pm

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by Sean_Nile »

The Subhuman wrote: Thu Mar 20, 2025 10:56 am As for early kick off, like our "London" issues it's a wierd stat but no good reason for it. But good we're making a thing about it, that won't get into players heads at all
People tend to forget that a football match is between two teams... aren't the other team affected in any way, I would suggest that both teams will have equally adverse reactions to an early kick off... why would Leeds be singled out as having the bad luck of an early start.

It is just inventing reasons for being under par.
oogleman
Youth Team
Youth Team
Posts: 50
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2025 3:33 pm
Location: kent uk

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by oogleman »

Theres likely a reason why most people eat lunch between 12 - 2 in the afternoon. I would guess the body is in refuel and siesta mode before waking up for the afternoon hunt in preparation for the evening eats and romantic dalliances.

The bodies clock (cant spell or i`d write Circadian rhythm etc etc) is a fascinating thing when you can do google lol


Or maybe its ingrained (sp)? into us males - wake up late after a night on the pish having porked some girl that was built like a builders mate and had a chinese takeaway or a kebab ( mourns the loss of fish & chip shop). Get up & have a big fry up then read the papers. Review whats on TV tonight and take the missus shopping .


Now its about 3pm and we are ready!!! Footie before the pub!!! (thats my theory for the british players but now i need to fit pasta & plonk in to it for those foreigners aghhhh.)



Dont mind me - im just having a wee breakdown thinking of the next 8 games 0 :lol: :roflmao: :lol:
User avatar
weasel
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 16167
Joined: Wed May 23, 2007 10:28 pm
Location: Not in Jaydog's garage

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by weasel »

The early kick offs affect us more when we are away rather than at home.

Our home record is played 5, won 2, drawn 2, lost 1 - the loss coming to Burnley. So at home it isn't as much of an issue, not as great as our normal home form but given the small sample size hard to really draw any meaningful conclusions in term of us being noticeably worse.

Our away record in the early kick offs is the concern. Played 6, drawn 3 and lost 3. Clearly the idea behind the moving of our away matches is in the hope that there is a shock on the cards, similar to how they usually show cup matches when a non-league or lower team is at home to the 'big team' rather than if the big side is at home.

So for me the fact it is televised and moved to the early kick off creates a cup tie atmosphere for the home fans. If we take the recent Portsmouth match and many have said it was like their cup final (with them then losing to Plymouth the following match). That is the case, the tv cameras, the early kick off etc all plays into the cup match atmosphere and the home players raise their game buoyed on by their fans. Keep it at 3pm with it just a normal game, just 1 or 2 cameras, no build up etc and the home fans aren't whipped into the frenzy and as such neither are the players.
I love leeds united, may I never admit to it. :shhh:
User avatar
weasel
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 16167
Joined: Wed May 23, 2007 10:28 pm
Location: Not in Jaydog's garage

Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Thursday 20th March) Why have Leeds performed so badly during early kick-off's

Post by weasel »

The flip side as well is that when we are at home for the early kick offs then we are not the underdog. Our crowd isn't whipped up into a cup match 'David v Goliath' frenzy. Instead we are the opposite. The kick off time is an annoyance, their is an air of apathy. We're not fussed about the cameras, we're used to them, so the atmosphere is subdued and perhaps that then affects our players.
I love leeds united, may I never admit to it. :shhh:
Post Reply