When did it all go wrong?

[Irish Ian]

Problem is how long do you give him?

You yourself have mentioned how his record without KP was really poor (less than a point per game in Premier league I think).

So between the time Bielsa was sacked and KP was fit enough to start we played 6 matches and got 10 points. Would Bielsa have got that? History suggests it's unlikely.

Then you have the Bamford issue, very nearly as important to him as KP. As it happens with Bamford and KP starting we didn't win a game that season under Bielsa incidentally ( 0 wins in 6).

And without him again Bielsa averaged less than a point per game.

Aside from the fact that the idea that injuries were the main deciding factor being flimsy given with Bamford and KP we didn't win any games.

There is the issue that his record without both of them would have probably seen us relegated anyway based on history.

Bamford barely kicked a ball all season and I'm unconvinced Phillips was fit.

Say it was a blip but this was a 2/3 of a season and we were averaging relegation level points with record breaking bad goal difference at the time.

History may have said Bielsa could turn it around, history also said that a Bamford and KP less Bielsa team would not be able to survive on a ppg average.

You say why not say end of the season "Look this went wrong this is how we improve it" to Bielsa? Even if he stayed (and I'm not convinced he would) people say he is a man of honour I think he'd have seen relegation as a failure on his part and departed as he would have seen his job as over and failed.

Aside from that you Don't tell Bielsa what went wrong and how to improve it, he isn't going to change so that would be a pointless conversation.

Also think the idea of get him better players and I'm sure he would be delighted. He approved plenty of crap signings.

jka, Aaronson, James, Costa, Firpo, Rodrigo.

His eye for talent wasn't that great.

He was obsessed with running and pressing stats same as Orta whilst completely ignoring the important things (creating, scoring goals etc).

It's no coincidence that two energiser headless chickens like James and Aaronson were
Approved by Bielsa. People like to blame Orta for those poor signings?

Do we accept Bielsa is to blame to? Or are we still going to pretend he had some grand plan and wasn't just obsessed with running around.

What bothers me most I think is this idea Bielsa was some genius flawless figure who always had a plan, always had the answer, never made errors, if things went wrong it was either someone else's fault, outside of his control or part of some master plan none of us mere mortals can see.

It's ridiculous,

He made plenty of mistakes like everyone, he wasn't going to turn James into Thierry Henry or Aaronson into Iniesta (he just liked that they ran a lot).

He was culpable in the JKA fiasco, not as much as Orta but he approved the deal and it was even reported he was tracking JKA himself through his own analysis teams.

He hated rotation, he hated deep squads, both things that can cause obvious issues (whether people like it or not) and he was the same at other clubs so wasn't enforced on him.

He was a flawed idealist genius

I have much respect for his ideals and him as a person (seems a lovely lovely man)

And we had some great years.

But everything runs its course.

And no one is bigger than the club (which is why I find the I'd have been happy going down with Bielsa stupid).

I just think people have such strong views on him it's impossible to have a reasoned discussion

Because some get so defensive of him it makes the others have to go to far the other way.

He did some great things, he seemed a lovely fella, he also made plenty of mistakes personally and was culpable in plenty of the clubs collective mistakes

Simple as that for me.

I maintain though that had we replaced Bielsa with Ernesto Valverde (he was on the shortlist according to Phil) then we wouldn't be where we are now, we wouldn't be having this conversation and people would be praising Valverde for improving on Bielsa and his legacy.

Bielsa being sacked wasn't the issue

His replacement was

And before that the board and there arrogance

It is all conjecture, but some thoughts.


For me I sincerely felt that a relegation last time wouldn't have been as bad for us as our current predicament.
Same as us not promoting in Bielsas first season was probably better for us ( in my opinion)
Why say relegation would have been not as bad last time?
One thing that is true in and sport is that life that early success can be to a persons detriment. You can start thinking that it is easy and also that you are deserving. That happened to the club. And the fandase.

You learn more from failure. Just like season 2 with Bielsa better equipped the squad for promotion dropping down and with Bielsa at the helm would have imo allowed him the room to actually build his squad and follow through on what he was actually trying to do.
If he stayed.
If course that was the problem the club had.
Uncertainty about him aligned itself with certainly about Marsch has left us with an unbalanced inexperienced squad I'll. equipped to survive.

That said when we survived last time I was sure the investment in the squad was on track and with a couple good windows we would be secure.

[DDB220]

When did it all go wrong ?

2nd EPL season transfer strategy.

[Jaydog]

Was this “shortlist” for real? Are we actually saying Valverde had his bags packed heading for ER or in reality it was a fabricated fantastical short list.
Same as suggesting having Haaland on our shortlist for a striker. By all means put him on there but it isn’t going to happen. Not was Valverde in all probability

[weasel]

Problem is how long do you give him?

Always a tricky one to judge - equally some will say Marsch should have been given less time and others would say more. As I have shown we went on an awful run in the championship, some fans were suggesting he should have been sacked then and suddenly we go on a fantastic run. There was nothing to suggest he couldn't turn things around especially given that we'd got an easier run of fixtures coming up.

You yourself have mentioned how his record without KP was really poor (less than a point per game in Premier league I think).

So between the time Bielsa was sacked and KP was fit enough to start we played 6 matches and got 10 points. Would Bielsa have got that? History suggests it's unlikely.

Glad that you have used stats and facts at last. Like you say the record without KP was poor. However we whupped Burnley and West Ham without KP and getting 10 points from the 6 matches v Leicester, Villa, Norwich, Wolves, Watford and Southampton is hardly an impossible task - we'd taken 9 points from thos fixtures (2 wins 3 draws) when we'd played them earlier in the season. So 'history' would suggest there was a reasonably good chance as it is was near enough simply just asking history to repeat itself

Then you have the Bamford issue, very nearly as important to him as KP. As it happens with Bamford and KP starting we didn't win a game that season under Bielsa incidentally ( 0 wins in 6).

And without him again Bielsa averaged less than a point per game.

Aside from the fact that the idea that injuries were the main deciding factor being flimsy given with Bamford and KP we didn't win any games.

There is the issue that his record without both of them would have probably seen us relegated anyway based on history.

Bamford barely kicked a ball all season and I'm unconvinced Phillips was fit.

Yes easy to suggest that the loss of Bamford and KP was very harmful although the key to evaluating stats is to ascertain if those facts alone are the determining factor as to what happened. I could say that I've never seen a lion in my bedroom since I decorated but it wouldn't make me go on safari and have a walkabout with Lions simply because I had my decorator's dungarees on and had a paint roller in my hand. I would suggest that if it was just KP and PB that were injured we would have been okay - however it wasn't. They were arguably the key injuries but you then throw in all the other injuries.

Say it was a blip but this was a 2/3 of a season and we were averaging relegation level points with record breaking bad goal difference at the time.

History may have said Bielsa could turn it around, history also said that a Bamford and KP less Bielsa team would not be able to survive on a ppg average.

You say why not say end of the season "Look this went wrong this is how we improve it" to Bielsa? Even if he stayed (and I'm not convinced he would) people say he is a man of honour I think he'd have seen relegation as a failure on his part and departed as he would have seen his job as over and failed.

It's just speculation, no knowing either way but given that Bielsa was happy enough to discuss going to Bournemouth and Everton it wasn't like he was itching to leave the country - and what better way to put a failure right than by getting us up again, something he was clearly capable of doing.

Aside from that you Don't tell Bielsa what went wrong and how to improve it, he isn't going to change so that would be a pointless conversation.

No but Bielsa absorbs all the information himself and works out ways of improving the side. He did that after we failed to get promoted. He took the same group of players and made them better. I think Bielsa would have been looking at what went wrong and ways to make it better.

Also think the idea of get him better players and I'm sure he would be delighted. He approved plenty of crap signings.

jka, Aaronson, James, Costa, Firpo, Rodrigo.

You say he approved the transfers but equally was he given other options. He didn't want Nketiah yet we signed him, on loan. He may have wanted Che Adams, we don't know but when that move failed to happen and Nketiah had gone back to Arsenal what players were on the list as available strikers? Probably a very short list - and don't apportion blame to Bielsa as to the JKA deal as the financial package is nothing to do with him and likely all Bielsa would have been told was that we could get him on loan.
Similar with Costa and due to the nature of the deal (whereby we only bought him if promoted) it was likely the best player we could get, at that point, without having to pay a fee. I don't know why you'd judge Bielsa on Dan James and Aaronsen as he only had a few months to work with James and no opportunity to work with Aaronsen he could have made both of them into very good players. I think it was you who suggested that Orta signed Llorente when Bielsa didn't want him and same with Nketiah.

His eye for talent wasn't that great.

He was obsessed with running and pressing stats same as Orta whilst completely ignoring the important things (creating, scoring goals etc).

It's no coincidence that two energiser headless chickens like James and Aaronson were
Approved by Bielsa. People like to blame Orta for those poor signings?

Do we accept Bielsa is to blame to? Or are we still going to pretend he had some grand plan and wasn't just obsessed with running around.

What bothers me most I think is this idea Bielsa was some genius flawless figure who always had a plan, always had the answer, never made errors, if things went wrong it was either someone else's fault, outside of his control or part of some master plan none of us mere mortals can see.

It's ridiculous,

He made plenty of mistakes like everyone, he wasn't going to turn James into Thierry Henry or Aaronson into Iniesta (he just liked that they ran a lot).

Could you tell me next week's winning lottery numbers as you can obviously see into the future

He was culpable in the JKA fiasco, not as much as Orta but he approved the deal and it was even reported he was tracking JKA himself through his own analysis teams.

He hated rotation, he hated deep squads, both things that can cause obvious issues (whether people like it or not) and he was the same at other clubs so wasn't enforced on him.

He was a flawed idealist genius

I have much respect for his ideals and him as a person (seems a lovely lovely man)

And we had some great years.

But everything runs its course.

And no one is bigger than the club (which is why I find the I'd have been happy going down with Bielsa stupid).

I just think people have such strong views on him it's impossible to have a reasoned discussion

Because some get so defensive of him it makes the others have to go to far the other way.

He did some great things, he seemed a lovely fella, he also made plenty of mistakes personally and was culpable in plenty of the clubs collective mistakes

Simple as that for me.

I maintain though that had we replaced Bielsa with Ernesto Valverde (he was on the shortlist according to Phil) then we wouldn't be where we are now, we wouldn't be having this conversation and people would be praising Valverde for improving on Bielsa and his legacy.

Bielsa being sacked wasn't the issue

His replacement was

And before that the board and there arrogance

[Jaydog]

Ok. So you painted your bedroom with your dungarees on. Got it. No lions. Check.
Then you went on safari and realised dungarees & a paint roller are no defence against marauding lions. Got it. Makes sense.
Thing I can’t get my head round is a man in dungarees. That’s a real puzzler

[weasel]

Not dungarees, overalls is the proper description I think. White things that you wear over your clothes while painting.

Something up with my brain today first Haalme instead of Hjelde and now dungarees instead of overalls. Whatever next Marsch intstead of Bielsa - oh no hang on only a complete idiot could make that error.

[Cjay]

Was this “shortlist” for real? Are we actually saying Valverde had his bags packed heading for ER or in reality it was a fabricated fantastical short list.
Same as suggesting having Haaland on our shortlist for a striker. By all means put him on there but it isn’t going to happen. Not was Valverde in all probability

I think Valverde was a possibility in the past.

Phil Hay doesn't tend to drop these names if they are fantasy so it's significant the only name mentioned in regards to an alternative to Marsch was Valverde.

And reliable Spanizh media sources have said we had him in mind before to.

But it seems Orta was absolutely obsessed with Marsch.

Valverde wasn't the sort of ego massage Orta would want

If he came in then he gets all the credit.

DOF appoints experienced and proven manager who does well . . Not much of a headline for Orta

Orta much like with his signings always had his image at the forefront of his mind imo.

[Jaydog]

Not dungarees, overalls is the proper description I think. White things that you wear over your clothes while painting.

Something up with my brain today first Haalme instead of Hjelde and now dungarees instead of overalls. Whatever next Marsch intstead of Bielsa - oh no hang on only a complete idiot could make that error.

[weasel]

6D1A8E7B-1E0A-46D3-ADCB-88BEA5BDA6EA.jpeg

Whoa I sent that saucy snap to your missus - I didn't give you permission to share it with all and sundry (though I don't mind you using it for your own perverse pleasure).

[Jaydog]

Whoa I sent that saucy snap to your missus - I didn't give you permission to share it with all and sundry (though I don't mind you using it for your own perverse pleasure).

Hard to resist a man in dungarees. According to my wife obviously.
You look like Sid James btw.

[weasel]

Hard to resist a man in dungarees. According to my wife obviously.
You look like Sid James btw.

Just like dungarees I come in all shapes and sizes.

[malcolmw]

The more time he spent with the squad, the worse we got. He didn't improve upon anything that had gone before, at all, ever.

We stayed up because of the residual fitness in the squad, the fighting spirit of the players, and blind luck elsewhere.

Marsch was at best a bystander, and at worst a wrecker of everything that had been achieved. He doesn't deserve 'thanks', he deserves nothing but anger and contempt.

I agree that Marsh was a total misfit from day 1. But a lot of these things discussed on this thread are so much easier to analyze in hindsight!

What your question made me think about was a much longer timeline of errors compounding on errors. What is it about us that we just seem to have this incredible talent for falling over our own feet. Look at our history over the past 20+ years.

How do we break this cycle? What sort of owners will it take? What sort of Manager?
I dont need to be fighting for top 6 / Europe every year - I just want us to be a safe top half for .....maybe a decade or so!! Is that too much to ask - FFS?

[The Subhuman]

Actually it was Bielsa that saved us last season, it was his team and mostly his tactics that kept us up. We won games and picked up points playing his way, especially Brentford... Marsch had f**k all to do with it

And right now Marsch's tactics are still causing us a lot of problems to this day and it will take a pre season to wash away the last remnants of his failed, flawed system

[andrewjohnsmith]

The more time he spent with the squad, the worse we got. He didn't improve upon anything that had gone before, at all, ever.

We stayed up because of the residual fitness in the squad, the fighting spirit of the players, and blind luck elsewhere.

Marsch was at best a bystander, and at worst a wrecker of everything that had been achieved. He doesn't deserve 'thanks', he deserves nothing but anger and contempt.

Great observation

[weasel]

The more time he spent with the squad, the worse we got. He didn't improve upon anything that had gone before, at all, ever.

We stayed up because of the residual fitness in the squad, the fighting spirit of the players, and blind luck elsewhere.

Marsch was at best a bystander, and at worst a wrecker of everything that had been achieved. He doesn't deserve 'thanks', he deserves nothing but anger and contempt.

Indeed it did. We got 7 points in the first 3 matches of the season, when the tactics came as a suprise to other teams. We also had large slices of good fortune in 2 of those matches, the Wolves keeper letting one squirm in at his near post when we were 1-0 down and struggling and then the Mendy gift to open the scoring in the Chelsea match. Our total of 18 points from 20 matches was bad enough but without those opening 7 points to inflate our points total it would have been more evident to even the most arent Marsch fans how terrible we were as we took 11 points from the next 17 matches.

People will point to us having bad luck and players making errors and say it made Marsch's points total worse but it is hardly like we stopped making errors when he left. Indeed Marsch had plenty of good fortune, the 2 examples I mentioned above and you can also throw in Liverpool gifting us a goal. People will also trot out the line about not taking beatings but Brentford put 5 past us, Tottenham put 4 past us, Fulham, Brentford and Man City and the championship's lowest scoring team, Cardiff scored 4 against us in the 2 matches against them. Yes no 6s and 7s but I think that was because teams were a little wary of us the first time we played them and I would have expected big beatings to come when we played some of the teams second time around.

[CHAPELALLMAN]

The more time he spent with the squad, the worse we got. He didn't improve upon anything that had gone before, at all, ever.

We stayed up because of the residual fitness in the squad, the fighting spirit of the players, and blind luck elsewhere.

Marsch was at best a bystander, and at worst a wrecker of everything that had been achieved. He doesn't deserve 'thanks', he deserves nothing but anger and contempt.

I think the most you could argue is that there was a new manager bounce when Marsch came in which kept us up. However that would just indicate that had Bielsa stayed we would have been relegated, as the morale was at zero in the dressing room after a series of massacres.

[weasel]

I think the most you could argue is that thee was a new manager bunce when Marsch came in which kept us up. However that would just indicate that had Bielsa stayed we would have been relegated, as the morale was at zero in the dressing room after a series of massacres.

We didn't even get that. We lost our first 2 matches under him. The 1-0 loss to Leicester where the players played the Bielsa way and then the 3-0 loss at home to Villa once Marsch had had chance to start trying to teach them his tactics.

[CHAPELALLMAN]

I agree that Marsh was a total misfit from day 1. But a lot of these things discussed on this thread are so much easier to analyze in hindsight!

What your question made me think about was a much longer timeline of errors compounding on errors. What is it about us that we just seem to have this incredible talent for falling over our own feet. Look at our history over the past 20+ years.

How do we break this cycle? What sort of owners will it take? What sort of Manager?
I dont need to be fighting for top 6 / Europe every year - I just want us to be a safe top half for .....maybe a decade or so!! Is that too much to ask - FFS?

The weird thing is that different generations of owners and people within the club's hierarchy still keep tripping up over their own feet. Maybe Don Revie was right about a gypsy curse...

[CHAPELALLMAN]

We didn't even get that. We lost our first 2 matches under him. The 1-0 loss to Leicester where the players played the Bielsa way and then the 3-0 loss at home to Villa once Marsch had had chance to start trying to teach them his tactics.

Hardly surprising given that we had lost the last 4 games under Bielsa whilst conceding 17 goals in those 4 matches.

We then went on to win 3 and draw one in the next 4 games after those initial two losses. So 10 out of 12 points. That's a new manager bounce.

[weasel]

Hardly surprising given that we had lost the last 4 games under Bielsa whilst conceding 17 goals in those 4 matches.

We then went on to win 3 and draw one in the next 4 games after those initial two losses. So 10 out of 12 points. That's a new manager bounce.

Nope that's playing Watford and Norwich instead of Man CIty, Liverpool and Man U.