Trump

[malcolmw]

What happened next at USAID
A textbook case of how not to cut wasteful government spending

ON JANUARY 28th the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, issued an “emergency humanitarian waiver” to exempt life-saving aid from Donald Trump’s freeze on all foreign assistance. Two weeks later, in Malawi, a country of 20m in southern Africa that is the world’s seventh-poorest by GDP per person, most local charities have stopped working and about 5,000 people—many of them health workers—have lost their jobs, says Mazisayko Matemba of the Health and Rights Education Programme, an NGO. “We expect more people to get infections and start dying.”

From South Africa to Afghanistan, the picture is similar. Mr Rubio issued two edicts that sought to rescue PEPFAR, a successful anti-AIDS initiative, as well as other “core life-saving” medical, food and shelter programmes from Elon Musk’s demolition crew at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Mr Musk has rapidly dismantled USAID, but DOGE tore apart foreign aid systems so quickly—closing offices, firing thousands of contractors, freezing bank accounts—that Mr Rubio’s waivers have so far proved meaningless, say aid workers in multiple countries. “Even when a waiver has been issued, there’s no way to execute it because the payment system has been broken,” says Kate Almquist Knopf, a former USAID Africa director based in Nairobi.

In Malawi, the antiretroviral drugs PEPFAR pays for are one of the major reasons why life expectancy has risen from 45 in 2000 to 63 in 2022. In South Africa, the $440m America spends every year fighting HIV and TB in the country accounts for about 17% of the government’s budget for tackling the diseases. Jeremy Nel, who runs one of the biggest HIV clinics in South Africa, in Johannesburg, says the staff in the hospital who were funded by PEPFAR were told on January 27th they could not come to work. They are still waiting for instruction from USAID, “but it is unclear whether USAID even exists anymore,” he says. “The number one problem has been the abruptness of the transition.”

Francois Venter, who runs a health NGO in the same city, points out that HIV programmes cannot be stopped and started “at the drop of a hat”. Charities don’t have financial reserves or access to loans; they need to know that the invoices they send will be reimbursed. The disruption in recent weeks “won’t cause death overnight but what it will do is set our progress back years,” says a doctor who until recently was funded via PEPFAR.

Mr Rubio has sounded defensive about the rapid and performatively cruel way that USAID has been dismantled. Initially, he blamed USAID staff for not co-operating. On February 10th, Mr Rubio conceded that there had been “some hiccups about how to restart the payment programmes, but all that’s going to get taken care of here very quickly.” PEPFAR and other lifesaving programmes “will continue”, he added, but he warned that PEPFAR is likely to shrink.

In the meantime, local and international charities face insolvency. A few large commercial and non-profit groups with diversified revenue may survive, executives in the sector say, but the business model for many charities reliant on USAID contracts is largely cash-in, cash-out, with little scope to build up reserves or borrowing power. When DOGE stopped payments, it cut off $750m to $1bn in money owed to contractors for work already completed, one executive estimates.

Across Africa, aid workers are parsing just how life-saving a programme must be to qualify for the Trump administration’s backing. Direct food aid may be allowed, but how about cash vouchers to buy food in the market? Medicine to fight HIV may be allowed, but how about education programmes to stop transmissions? Does the provision of seeds to villagers who will starve if they don’t plant before the next wet season count as life-saving? In Washington, there is no one to answer the phone and sort out such questions, aid officials say. “This was done so ignorantly, without an understanding of what’s required at both ends of the implementing chain,” says Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale University’s School of Public Health.

Mr Rubio, a supporter of PEPFAR and other foreign aid during his Senate career, may yet have a chance to repair some of the damage he has overseen. But Mr Trump has offered his top diplomat little cover to do so and appears more impressed by Mr Musk’s claim that foreign aid is essentially a corrupt racket.

[malcolmw]

Sorry - meant to add source for above article. The Economist - Feb 13th.

[malcolmw]

Hilarious. The whole of Europe and the US does nothing, zilch, zero to even try to end the war for three years, while 100s of 1000s die. Trump starts the process within three weeks and everyone all of a sudden knows how it should be done. You couldn’t make this up.

Yes it is indeed hilarious. AS you can see below your hero Mr Trump is planning to enable his boss Mr. Putin to hold elections in Ukraine. And we all know how Mr Putin holds elections.

Trump and the MAGA cult selling out the good people of Ukraine - as was widely expected. Sa

Russia and US develop 3-step peace plan for Ukraine that includes elections - Fox News
Story by Daria Dmytriieva•

The United States and Russia have developed a peace plan for Ukraine, which includes holding new elections as a key step in resolving the conflict, according to Fox News White House press pool correspondent Jacqui Heinrich.

The US and Russia have proposed a three-stage peace plan, which includes "a ceasefire, elections in Ukraine, then signing of a final agreement".

Jacqui Heinrich refers to diplomatic sources who claim that this plan is being actively discussed in Saudi Arabia, where key negotiations on conflict resolution are taking place.

Both Washington and Moscow consider holding new elections in Ukraine to be the key condition for the success of this peace process. However, this proposal will likely become controversial since Russia has long been criticized for conducting undemocratic elections. In Ukraine, there is widespread fear that such elections could result in a pro-Russian president being elected.

Even though Ukraine does not support the idea of a "puppet" president, some sources indicate that Russia believes the likelihood of electing such a candidate is quite high.

At the same time, Vladimir Putin is convinced that any candidate other than the current Ukrainian president will be more flexible and open to negotiations and concessions.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who is also involved in the diplomatic process, is reportedly ready to support any election outcome, including the possibility of a pro-Russian candidate winning.

Both Trump and Putin believe that Zelensky's re-election chances are quite low.

The White House has not yet commented on these discussions, but an official statement is expected soon.

First Deputy Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, Oleksandr Korniyenko, has stated that the proposed election dates currently being discussed do not reflect reality.

According to him, this is a political manipulation at this stage.

[Aussieleeds]

Tell me again what Europe did to advance peace in Ukraine for the past 3 years … just sat on the sidelines while sleepy Joe funneled just enough US taxpayer’s billions to Ukraine to keep the war going but not win it. Not once did anyone even propose talking about peace. Hypocrites.

[malcolmw]

Tell me again what Europe did to advance peace in Ukraine for the past 3 years … just sat on the sidelines while sleepy Joe funneled just enough US taxpayer’s billions to Ukraine to keep the war going but not win it. Not once did anyone even propose talking about peace. Hypocrites.

At least they didn't give PUtin what he wants - i.e. all of Ukraine - which is what Trump is going to do and put Ukraine into servitude to Putin. I wonder what Trump will say when Zelensky "falls out of a hotel window" or dies in a Siberian gulag of "natural causes". I guess he will just have moved on ny then.

As has been said over the past week, the US can no longer be trusted. The world faced a powerful fascist tyrant in the 30's and came through. We're doing the same now - only he's orange.
But we'll come through again - let's just hope it doesnt cost quite as many lives.

Only ones who will benefit in the long run is China. US influence will be greatly weakened within the next 4 years.

But you and Sean keep waving your MAGA caps as you seem to have drunk the orange Kool-Aid.

[malcolmw]

At least they didn't give PUtin what he wants - i.e. all of Ukraine - which is what Trump is going to do and put Ukraine into servitude to Putin. I wonder what Trump will say when Zelensky "falls out of a hotel window" or dies in a Siberian gulag of "natural causes". I guess he will just have moved on ny then.

As has been said over the past week, the US can no longer be trusted. The world faced a powerful fascist tyrant in the 30's and came through. We're doing the same now - only he's orange.
But we'll come through again - let's just hope it doesnt cost quite as many lives.

Only ones who will benefit in the long run is China. US influence will be greatly weakened within the next 4 years.

But you and Sean keep waving your MAGA caps as you seem to have drunk the orange Kool-Aid.

And BTW - Sean had better brush up on his Russian. Because Finland will be next.

[Pullhard]

All feels like a Ukrainian stitch up dressed up to be politically acceptable.
Georgia and Moldova must be worried.
The Baltics likewise.

China sits quietly and trains their binoculars on Taiwan

[Pullhard]

All feels like a Ukrainian stitch up dressed up to be politically acceptable.
Georgia and Moldova must be worried.
The Baltics likewise.

China sits quietly and trains their binoculars on Taiwan

[malcolmw]

Just how bad Trump's so-called negotiations with Russia are is explained by the numbers below. The squeeze on Russia is beginning to work but Trump will undo it all. Tragic for Ukraine. Total Victory for Putin.

How Vladimir Putin plans to play Donald Trump - The Russian president thinks he is a better poker player
The Economist Feb 18th 2025

Judged by the din of Russian propaganda and the despair among some Europeans, Vladimir Putin has never been closer to winning his war on Ukraine. Yet three years after his invasion, it is not clear what “win” means. His goals are elusive. His “special military operation” was planned in secret. His government was kept in the dark, as were the Russian people. Mr Putin talks of defending Russian sovereignty, but what happens next depends in part on factors outside his control: politics in Ukraine, Europe’s re-armament effort, and above all Donald Trump. Negotiations with the Trump administration began formally on February 18th in Saudi Arabia.

Mr Trump has no clear plan, and his options range from cutting off Ukraine to ramping up military aid and sanctions. The dance between the American president and Mr Putin took another step in Riyadh, in the first direct meeting between American and Russian officials for three years. They agreed to a nebulous series of negotiations on Ukraine and “mutual geopolitical interests”. Preparations will begin for a Trump-Putin summit, although no date was fixed.

These open-ended talks suit Mr Putin just fine. Whereas Mr Trump views them as a way to end a “ridiculous” war, Mr Putin sees them as a stage in a larger conflict, says an American official. The Russian leader calculates he has more staying power than Ukraine or NATO, the creaking Western alliance. Like a poker player, Mr Putin excels in projecting confidence and strength. In reality, though, his cards are not as strong as he would like his opponents to believe, while an end to the war could create complications for him at home.

Any assessment of Russia’s negotiating position should start with the military situation. Its army has performed dismally. The pace of advance is excruciatingly slow: since last July it has struggled to take the town of Pokrovsk, where current losses are staggering. Most of its gains were in the first weeks of the war. In April 2022, following Russia’s retreat from the north of Ukraine, it controlled 19.6% of Ukrainian territory, and its casualties (dead and wounded) were perhaps 20,000. Today Russia occupies 19.2% and its casualties are 800,000, reckon British sources. A Western official says “the two armies are fighting each other because they can’t stop, not because they are really hoping to achieve a decisive victory.”

The attrition of equipment is jawdropping. Consider Russia’s stock of Soviet-era armour, built up over decades. More than half of the 7,300 tanks it had in storage are gone. Of those that remain, only 500 can be reconditioned quickly. By April Russia may run out of its T-80 tanks. Last year it lost twice as many artillery systems as in the preceding two years. Recruiting contract soldiers is getting more expensive. A general mobilisation would be politically risky. Public-opinion surveys clearly show that Russians want the war to end.

Russia’s economy has withstood the blow of sanctions thanks to the professionalism of its central bank, high commodity prices and fiscal stimulus. Yet the reallocation of resources from productive sectors to the military complex has fuelled double-digit inflation. Interest rates are 21%, the highest level in two decades. A shortage of labour is chronic. Figures on the economy may not be reliable: the statistics authority constantly revises growth estimates, for example. But a report by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy, leaked to Reuters, warns a recession may come before inflation slows. Oleg Vyugin, a former deputy head of the central bank, says the government must soon choose between cutting military spending or galloping inflation. The sovereign wealth fund is being drained. According to Mikhail Zadornov, a former finance minister, its liquid assets have shrunk from 7.4% of GDP to below 2%. Exports, which were $417bn last year, are under pressure from sanctions and lower commodity prices. In December they fell by 20% year on year. Kirill Rogov of Re: Russia, a think-tank, argues that sanctions and a gradual price decline in the basket of exports, including steel and agriculture, would limit Russia’s capacity for aggression.

Such vulnerabilities mean some in the West believe this is the worst possible time for America to be floating rapid concessions to the Kremlin. Even if the West cannot grant Ukraine ironclad security guarantees it could maintain sanctions in order to hold Russia at bay, Mr Rogov argues. Yet Mr Trump is focused on delivering on his promise to end the war quickly, not on constraining and deterring Russia for years. “We are finally getting Putin into the position where we wanted him to be for three years. It would be a terrible shame if we allow him to snatch victory from the teeth of defeat,” an American official says.

Mr Putin believes Mr Trump is not just impatient, but manipulable. He has courted the American president with flattery and instant gratification: on February 11th he released Marc Fogel, an American citizen whom Russia arrested in 2021. Mr Putin’s underlying demands are unchanged. These include a non-aligned Ukraine, whose forces are limited in size and in terms of equipment, and which does not host Western troops. He wants recognition that Crimea and four other annexed Ukrainian provinces are part of Russia. Most importantly, as Mr Putin laid out in June 2024, “the essence of our proposal is not a temporary truce or ceasefire” that would leave sanctions in place and allow Ukraine to rearm. Instead Mr Putin wants a “definitive resolution” that would lift the Western embargo on Russia and allow it to reconstitute its army.

Even if the hot war ends, Mr Putin will continue to try to cripple Europe and re-establish Russia’s sphere of influence. His goal is to break Ukraine and to dismantle the American-led post-1945 order, according to Steve Covington, an advisor to NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe. As Mr Putin told his diplomats last year, “the entire system of Euro-Atlantic security is crumbling before our eyes.” Europe “is being marginalised in global economic development, plunged into chaos…and losing international agency and cultural identity”. He was doubtless pleased to hear J.D. Vance, America’s vice-president, echo this claim on February 15th at the Munich Security Conference. At that event in 2007 Mr Putin first declared his determination to fight the West. The Kremlin no doubt hopes that pro-Russian right-wing parties, whom Mr Vance admires, will gain in European elections.

Gremlins for the Kremlin
Mr Putin’s highest priority is to stay in power. Getting out of war entails its own risks, including the return of hundreds of thousands of soldiers and a fight among different clans. Mr Trump’s diplomacy has given oxygen to moderates who had silently opposed the war. They lack political power, but these “beneficiaries of peace”—private businessmen, economists and some technocrats–hope Mr Trump and his team can change Russia’s trajectory. Unable to confront Mr Putin, they want to persuade him that cooling the confrontation with the West would not endanger, but enhance his security.

On the other side are the “beneficiaries of war”. If confrontation is the foundation of the Putin regime, violence and corruption are its glue. Oligarchic clans benefit from quotas for exporting oil and other commodities in grey markets created by sanctions. (One tycoon likens them to the smuggling schemes run by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.) They will not part with their lucrative franchises lightly. The security services will be searching both for “fifth columnists” who support peace and ultra-nationalists who will see any deal as a betrayal.

Mr Trump is right to want to “stop the killing”. If a ceasefire allows Ukraine to re-build, triggers higher European defence spending and maintains some sanctions on Russia’s creaking economy it could also see Mr Putin’s ambitions fail. Mr Putin, however, is betting that he can fight for longer than Ukraine can, or that he can manoeuvre Mr Trump into a deal that allows Russia to reintegrate into the world economy, renders Ukraine a divided and semi-failing state, and leaves Europe too stunned to defend itself.■

[Aussieleeds]

At least they didn't give PUtin what he wants - i.e. all of Ukraine - which is what Trump is going to do and put Ukraine into servitude to Putin. I wonder what Trump will say when Zelensky "falls out of a hotel window" or dies in a Siberian gulag of "natural causes". I guess he will just have moved on ny then.

As has been said over the past week, the US can no longer be trusted. The world faced a powerful fascist tyrant in the 30's and came through. We're doing the same now - only he's orange.
But we'll come through again - let's just hope it doesnt cost quite as many lives.

Only ones who will benefit in the long run is China. US influence will be greatly weakened within the next 4 years.

But you and Sean keep waving your MAGA caps as you seem to have drunk the orange Kool-Aid.

Yes, Mal. Trump is going to give Putin all of Ukraine. Tell us all how he will do that Mal? How about I buy you a beer if Trump gives all of Ukraine to Putin and you buy me one if he doesn’t? Deal?

Back in the US the lefties are now resorting to “Well of course there’s waste in government, we’ve been saying that for years (under our breaths) but he’s just going about it the wrong way. Hilarious.

[Irish Ian]

Yes, Mal. Trump is going to give Putin all of Ukraine. Tell us all how he will do that Mal? How about I buy you a beer if Trump gives all of Ukraine to Putin and you buy me one if he doesn’t? Deal?

Back in the US the lefties are now resorting to “Well of course there’s waste in government, we’ve been saying that for years (under our breaths) but he’s just going about it the wrong way. Hilarious.

He withdraws military aid, Ukraine is on its knees manpower wise, dependent on tech to hold off the Russians. Europe won't put boots on the ground, their aid will only last two years.

So Putin, waits it out and gets control of Ukraine by default.

Also Trump continues to pressure Europe to lift sanctions on his pal.

What has Putin got on Trump? That is the question needing an answer.

[Aussieleeds]

So is that a beer from you too Ian?

[Irish Ian]

So is that a beer from you too Ian?

If we are still alive yes I will buy you a proper irish beer

Budweiser or Heineken?

[Aussieleeds]

So is that a beer from you too Ian?

Anyone remember when it was the Trump supporters that were supposedly all ‘conspiracy theorists’?

[Tyzy]

He withdraws military aid, Ukraine is on its knees manpower wise, dependent on tech to hold off the Russians. Europe won't put boots on the ground, their aid will only last two years.

So Putin, waits it out and gets control of Ukraine by default.

Also Trump continues to pressure Europe to lift sanctions on his pal.

What has Putin got on Trump? That is the question needing an answer.

Trump is a Russian infiltrator, didn't Russia try and interfere with the last election to get Trump elected.
Trump will bend over for Putin and take it where the sun doesn't shine,he's weak.

[Broad Ford]

Trump is a Russian infiltrator, didn't Russia try and interfere with the last election to get Trump elected.
Trump will bend over for Putin and take it where the sun doesn't shine,he's weak.

Didn't the Labour Party engage in “election interference” by encouraging volunteers to cross the Atlantic and campaign for Kamala Harris? These Champaign socialists have no principles regarding the outcome of the popular vote. As Groucho Marx put it “I have principles, but if you don’t like them - well I have others.”

[malcolmw]

Yes, Mal. Trump is going to give Putin all of Ukraine. Tell us all how he will do that Mal? How about I buy you a beer if Trump gives all of Ukraine to Putin and you buy me one if he doesn’t? Deal?

Back in the US the lefties are now resorting to “Well of course there’s waste in government, we’ve been saying that for years (under our breaths) but he’s just going about it the wrong way. Hilarious.

Maybe read the article I posted. Maybe watch what Trump said about Ukraine.
Maybe give your head a shake.
And stop drinking that MAGA juice.

[mentalcase]

If we are still alive yes I will buy you a proper irish beer

Budweiser or Heineken?

[BradWhite]

Some folk on here think politics is about fairness.

"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”

Lord Acton.

$100sM have been given to Ukraine, and half of it has gone missing!!!

This is not about democracy.

[Tyzy]

Which ever way you look at it the rubbish Trump is saying about Ukraine is concerning, Putin must be loving it.