Just over a week to go until Leeds United kick off their new season, back in the Premier League where they belong, with anticipation, excitement and optimism in the air. But now the fun sponges with their supercomputers have had their say, and it’s not looking good for Leeds United. The data science teams at both Opta and The Telegraph have crunched the numbers and placed Leeds firmly at the wrong end of the table.
Brace yourself for the worst news. The Telegraph’s data science team have churned through years of stats, form guides, and contextual factors, everything from attacking and defensive metrics to recent results, before unleashing an XGBoost model to simulate the season 10,000 times. The outcome? A perilous forecast for all three newly promoted sides, with Leeds suffering the most.
Daniel Farke’s side are handed a staggering 92% probability of relegation, with the simulations dooming them to finish bottom on a measly 18 points. Joining them in the drop zone are Burnley, with an 80% probability of going down on 22 points, and Sunderland, predicted to have a 59% chance of relegation on 25 points. The Telegraph’s numbers also warn of troubled waters for Everton and Wolves, who could be dragged into the scrap for survival.
Opta’s model, similar to The Telegraph’s, predicts match outcomes using odds, its own Power Rankings, and historical and recent team performances. It runs thousands of simulated seasons, factoring in the strength of opponents, and counts how often each team finishes in each position. Thousands of scenarios later, Leeds still find themselves staring down the wrong end of the league table.
Now for a sliver of good news. Opta’s simulations have Leeds winning the Premier League once in every 10,000 runs. That’s 0.01%, about the same odds as finding a winning scratch card in your back pocket. Beyond that miracle, Opta’s numbers predict a 48.1% chance of relegation, with Leeds finishing 19th on 36 points. Sunderland fare worse, finishing bottom on 31 points with a 66.4% chance of relegation, while Burnley’s survival hopes sit at 54.1% with a predicted 37 points.
Opta’s table is tighter than The Telegraph’s, with Manchester United, Everton, Spurs, Fulham, West Ham United and Wolves all struggling below the 50-point mark. Yet both models agree on one thing: the promoted sides are in trouble. And history backs them up with 60% of newly promoted clubs have gone straight back down in the past five seasons, a figure that has hit 100% over the past two.
If Leeds want to survive, they’ll have to defy the numbers. One thing in our favour, they’ve been promoted to the top flight seven times and have never been immediately relegated. They’ve built a solid foundation this summer, but with the transfer window ticking down, they need that final spark of stardust to beat the supercomputers and prove the doubters wrong.
