Good Morning. It's Thursday 20th November, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road...
Can Leeds make a difference during AFCON?
As the Africa Cup of Nations approaches, Leeds United find themselves in the unusual position of being completely unaffected by the tournament, one of only three Premier League sides without any representatives, alongside Arsenal and Chelsea. This quirk in the calendar could play heavily in their favour, especially given how the fixtures fall. Four of Leeds’ six games during AFCON are against teams set to lose key players, potentially tilting the odds in the Whites’ favour (hopefully).
The festive calendar kicks off with a trip to Crystal Palace five days before Christmas, where Oliver Glasner’s side will be shorn of four first-team regulars: Christantus Uche (Nigeria), Chadi Riad (Morocco), Cheick Doucouré (Mali) and the ever-dangerous Ismaila Sarr (Senegal).
Leeds then head north to Sunderland on 28th December, a side more depleted than any other, missing up to nine players to AFCON duty. That includes Noah Sadiki (DR Congo), Simon Adingra (Ivory Coast), Chemsdine Talbi (Morocco), Reinildo Mandava (Mozambique) Ahmed Abdullahi (Nigeria), Habib Diarra (Senegal), Arthur Masuaku (DR Congo), Blondy Nna Noukeu (Cameroon) and Bertrand Traoré (Burkina Faso), absences that could stretch their squad through a tricky spell.
On New Year’s Day, Leeds face Liverpool at Anfield, where the Reds will only be without Mo Salah. While the Egyptian’s absence is significant given his five goals and three assists this season, his Whoscored rating of 6.72 places him seventh in Liverpool’s squad, hinting at the depth Arne Slot still retains.
A few days later, Elland Road will welcome Manchester United, who could be missing Bryan Mbeumo (Cameroon), Amad Diallo (Ivory Coast) and Noussair Mazraoui (Morocco), forcing Ruben Amorim to rethink his right flank while hoping Benjamin Šeško recovers from injury in time. The AFCON impact for Leeds dips slightly on 7th January at Newcastle United, with only Yoane Wissa (DR Congo) missing for the Magpies and his nation not expected to make a deep run.
The challenge swings back in Leeds’ favour on 17th January when Fulham visit, potentially missing all three of their Nigerian contingent: Alex Iwobi, Calvin Bassey, and Samuel Chukwueze. Iwobi’s ever-present role and Bassey’s near-constant inclusion make them big losses, while Chukwueze’s energy from the bench could also be missed.
Will the stats make a difference?
Sunday lunchtime’s clash between Leeds United and Aston Villa at Elland Road shapes up to be a fascinating encounter, rich with intriguing subplots and revealing statistics. History offers a mixed picture: Villa have enjoyed a solid recent record in league visits to Leeds, unbeaten in their last three and with four wins in the last 11 meetings there, though their last defeat came back in May 2003 under Graham Taylor. That said, Leeds will be desperate to find a way through, they’ve failed to score in each of the last three home league meetings with Villa, something they’ve never previously endured four times in a row against a single opponent. For Villa, it’s been a happy hunting ground defensively, with only their run at Everton producing more consecutive clean sheets away from home.
Form trends suggest both opportunity and jeopardy for the hosts. Leeds have proven clinical against teams in the bottom half but have struggled against stronger opposition, failing to win any of their last 17 Premier League games against sides starting in the top half since October 2022. Aston Villa, conversely, thrive against newly promoted outfits, boasting a 17-game unbeaten run in such fixtures under Unai Emery, a streak they’ll be keen to extend. However, both sides have found goal conversion a sticking point this season – Villa (20%) and Leeds (22.7%) sit among the league’s lowest in turning big chances into goals, with Leeds’ overall shot conversion better only than bottom side Wolves.
Yet there are sharp weapons on display. Villa have been the league’s specialists from range, already scoring seven goals from outside the box, more than from inside; matching last season’s total in that department. Leeds, meanwhile, are fast starters, firing 80% of their league goals in first halves, with three of their last strikes arriving inside the opening quarter-hour. Individual battles could also prove decisive: long-time Leeds target Emiliano Buendía has hit a rich vein of form with five goal involvements in his last five league games, while Leeds defender Joe Rodon has been an aerial force at set pieces, winning more attacking first contacts from corners (10) than anyone bar Erling Haaland.
