Having reached the playoff final in 2024/25 after finishing third in the table, Leeds fans were entitled to hope that they could go one better and get automatic promotion this season, even if they couldn’t count on beating the likes of Burnley, Sunderland and Sheffield United to lift the Championship trophy. After all, winning the whole thing is the icing on the cake, but the prize is promotion.
The Longest Odds
As Leeds stepped up to the plate of the unpredictable Championship at the start of the season, predictions of where they would finish varied considerably. After all, last season, they finished with 90 points, a total that was actually good enough to land automatic promotion in each of the previous six seasons. They also had the benefit of stability in the dugout and in their manager, Daniel Farke, who knows exactly how to get a team up from this level, having taken Norwich up as champions back in the 2018/19 season.Having appeared in the first 12 Premier League seasons, the Whites have spent 17/20 seasons since then outside the top flight, and while the club’s proud history will never fade, it is arguable whether Leeds fans can realistically call their club a top-flight team.
Fans can be hopeful that a spark of passion will ignite Leeds season, betting houses on the other hand are showing a more level-headed outlook. Most platforms are showing a likely top 5 finish, with strong odds for top 3.
But with the odds of a top spot finish not looking so far-fetched I’m sure many devout fans will be enticed to believe. The real excitement in sports betting lies in the strategy. Can your knowledge and intuition of the game out fox the bookie? This is one of the reasons why betting on the underdog is such a common practice.
Football has always had close ties to the betting industry through sponsorships but since the sharp rise in players in both the online betting and online casino UK, teams have pulled away from such public support. Sports betting in the UK is very commonplace, stepping up to a roulette table doesn’t share the same image and the two have become more linked since moving online. For this reason, football teams have moved away from public support, none the less the two are still intrinsically linked.
Building on a Near Miss
At the start of the season, Leeds fans would rightly have prioritised transfer business as the key to whether the club was on the road to Championship glory after last season’s near miss.This wasn’t just about trying to make the team stronger. As it often the case in the Championship, a narrow failure often results in the loss of the best players, and so it proved this summer. Archie Gray took the move to Tottenham Hotspur and another Premier League club, West Ham, poached Crysencio Summerville, who had earned the season’s Player of the Year award.
On the other hand, it looked as though Leeds had recruited wisely, bringing in defensive rock Jayden Bogle from Sheffield United and securing the services of Bournemouth’s Joe Rothwell on loan for the duration of the campaign. Those additions built on a midfield and backline that was full of reliable stars and a supplement to the strong Leeds academy, which has been a talent conveyor belt.
The Premier League experience of Patrick Bamford was expected to be crucial, but the best signing, based on early season form, came from the Bundesliga.
The Impact of Ao Tanaka
Signed from Fortuna Dusseldorff in the summer, Ao Tanaka may be a Japanese international, but was regarded as a squad player initially. However, he has shown his worth after stepping up to the first time following injuries to first choice stars Ilia Gruev and Ethan Ampadu.Takana has adapted easily to the Championship, earning a string of Man of the Match Awards for his performances dictating the tempo at the heart of the Leeds midfield. His promotion to the team has certainly changed the dynamic in the crucial midfield areas. Last season, Farke favoured a central midfield of Glen Kamara alongside Ampadu or Gruev and the result was often a defensively strong but creatively suspect midfield.
That has definitely changed this time round, and Tanaka is the key. His stats from the victory against QPR before the November international break tell their own story. He made 80/86 successful passes, had eight passes in the final third, created two chances and also contributed two interceptions and four recoveries at the other end of the pitch.
His season-so-far stats are just as impressive. He has overtaken Kamara in the ranks of shots taken and he has worked well with Rothwell, whose regular forward forays have caused panic in opposing teams. While Leeds fans may be concerned that this combination lacks the defensive solidity of last year’s midfield line-up, the goals against stats suggest it isn’t a problem. Leeds have conceded nine goals in 15 games, giving them the second best defensive stats in the division, behind Burnley.
Strongly Positioned
Leeds went into the November international break in a strong position. They lay fourth in the table, having secured 29 points from their first 15 games. Their only defeats so far have been narrow 1-0 setbacks against Burnley and Millwall, and at the other end, they have the division’s fourth best offensive record.The team’s response to that defeat to Millwall will give Leeds fans confidence that they have what it takes to go all the way and win the Championship. After suffering only their second league loss of the season, Leeds had to fight hard against Queens Park Rangers, but they scored twice, through a scrappy goal from Jayden Bogle and an injury time second from Joel Piroe.
That win would have been enough to see them go into the international break in second place in the table if Sheffield United had not beaten Sheffield Wednesday, but they are still in close contention and beating QPR despite not playing well and having Ampadu and Largie Ramazani in the stands due to injury, is a strong indication of the team’s resilience.
No Room for Complacency
Leeds fans, however, are well aware how dangerous it is to be complacent, and the same goes for Farke, his coaching team and the Leeds squad. Last season, the Whites were top of the league after 37 games but subsequently lost four games before the end of the season to end up in third and miss out on automatic promotion by a tiny margin.Although they got past Norwich in the play-off semi-finals, they fell short in the big game, losing 1-0 to Southampton and missing out on a return to the Premier League after one season.
That disappointment will ensure that no Leeds fan will be publicly predicting a Championship winning season in 2024-25, and the fact that this is a gruelling, unpredictable division, will also ensure that any complacency is punished ruthlessly.
They face league games against top-five teams Sheffield United, Burnley and Middlesbrough away from Elland Road, and three of their four games over the Christmas period are on the road, against Preston, Derby and Stoke, all of which are potentially tricky fixtures.
On the positive side, three of their last five games of the season are at home, and their last two away games see them take on Plymouth and Oxford, teams that are likely to remain in the bottom third, given their comparative lack of resources.